Mar 24: Possible Thunderstorms Detected

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2016 10:07

Mar 24: Possible Thunderstorms Detected

We have an active weather pattern setting up over the next 24-36 hours. A cold front has backed into New Jersey from the NE, bringing a cold and cloudy Atlantic Ocean air mass to many locations. Our primary driver will be a low pressure system currently approaching Illinois. As it tracks over the Great Lakes and ultimately over Maine, it will first reverse the backdoor cold front into a warm front. That frontal boundary should only make it partially into New Jersey by the end of peak diurnal heating today, as see here on the high-res NAM (2-meter temps at 2PM):

nam temps

Let’s allow a small chance for showers (maybe a boomer) along that frontal boundary today. Temperatures should then, for the most part, hold overnight tonight as the warm front advances northward. Since New Jersey will be warm-sectored overnight and into tomorrow, it could feel warm and muggy until the cold front comes through around noon (give or take a few hours) tomorrow. Rain showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of this cold front, as also indicated on the high-res NAM (Simulated rainfall at 11AM tomorrow):

nam

Once the cold front is through, we’re then looking dry for the weekend but cooler (highs in the 40s/50s). I’ll have the detailed weekend outlook posted this evening.

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In English: Today will be much warmer for SWNJ than other parts of the state. NENJ should be a different planet than SWNJ. Somewhere in the middle will be a sharp temperature difference separating 60s/70s and 40s/50s. There is a small chance of afternoon showers along that area today. We will then be warm and possibly sticky overnight into tomorrow as more rain showers and possibly thunderstorms form along a cold frontal passage during the day. It should all clear through by late-afternoon but could make for a wet and thundery AM commute/late-morning. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2016 10:07

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