May Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 3, 2018 11:18

May Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of May 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj5-2018

Higher Elevation Discussion: If you draw a mean through expected May temperatures, you get highs generally in the low-to-mid-70s with overnight lows in the lower-50s (outside of the colder second week of May). For that second week of May, highs could be capped in the upper-60s/lower-70s with overnight lows dipping into the 40s. May precipitation looks average, maybe even slightly-below average. Expect typical spring showers and thunderstorms to pop up during afternoon/early evening hours. Also expect such to assemble in linear segments along warm and cold fronts. Pretty run-of-mill May conditions are expected in my opinion.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj5-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: If you draw a mean through expected May temperatures, you get highs generally in the mid-to-upper-70s with overnight lows in the lower-50s. The second week of May looks cooler than the rest of May but not as cool as the NNJ elevations. This area has the best shot to make a run for 90 during any heat waves. Otherwise I would expect a few periods of breaking 80. May precipitation looks average, maybe even slightly-below average. Expect typical spring showers and thunderstorms to pop up during afternoon/early evening hours. Also expect such to assemble in linear segments along warm and cold fronts. Pretty run-of-mill May conditions are expected in my opinion.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj5-2018

Coastal Region Discussion: If you draw a mean through expected May temperatures, you get highs generally in the low-to-mid-70s with overnight lows in the mid-50s. The May 6-9 period looks to be the coolest of May with highs struggling to break out of the 60s and possibly even 50s. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 40s for this period. This general region is the most susceptible to cooler onshore flow since the ocean temperatures are still in the upper-40s/lower-50s along the Jersey Shore. May precipitation looks average, maybe even slightly-below average. Expect typical spring showers and thunderstorms to pop up during afternoon/early evening hours. Also expect such to assemble in linear segments along warm and cold fronts. Pretty run-of-mill May conditions are expected in my opinion.

In English: We’ve finally pulled away from the ridiculously extended back-loaded winter—that brought snow and ice to many parts of New Jersey through most of April. We have however seen a few mini warm spells, like two weekends ago and this week. These are very anomalous and we’ll be returning back to normal spring temps for much of May. The above discussions for each region highlight expected high and low temperatures. What they do not include are larger-scale synoptic rain systems that can form in any 4-7 day forecasting period. It’s too cold for tropical cyclones and too warm for snow storms…but the occasional spring nor’easter is known to bring flooding rains and storm surge. None are currently expected but I’ll be keeping an eye out for this as well as any severe weather outbreaks that might arise. Otherwise everyone have a great May and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 3, 2018 11:18

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