Mild but Unsettled (Mar 24-26)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2017 11:25

Mild but Unsettled (Mar 24-26)

It’s not a total washout but the weekend looks unsettled overall. Let’s break it down…

Disco: High pressure is departing and providing return flow out of the S. An area of low pressure should cut from the lower central plains towards the Great Lakes through this weekend. This should further enhance the southerly flow with an overall sloppy Norwegian cyclone model but just defined-enough to bring a warm front->warm sector-> cold front through New Jersey. The warm front should pass from SW to NE today and overnight tonight. Tomorrow through Sunday afternoon, most of the region will be warm-sectored with stiff S winds. High pressure will be floating through SE Canada and this could stall the warm front just, and I mean JUST, to the N of New Jersey. This might even keep some of NNJ from warming up especially on Saturday during peak expected temperatures. We’ll see but know that there will be a sharp temperature gradient hanging around the NNJ/NYC area. Just 20 miles on either side of that boundary could mean the difference between coats and t-shirts. A cold front should ultimately come through but this could be held up until mid-next week as milder temperatures try to sustain under higher 500mb heights, marginal 700mb temperatures and mild lower-levels of the atmosphere. This cold front might have negligible impact on temperatures if it weakens and falls apart while being held up. This would, in theory, continue milder temperatures through next week. As far as rain goes, total modeled precipitation through the weekend has backed off some. I think we can squeeze out some sunny daylight hours on Saturday and maybe even Sunday but isolated-to-scattered showers at anytime cannot be ruled out. I’d say the best chances for rain exist Saturday afternoon/evening and then Sunday evening. Again, not a washout. More of a nuisance and not widespread. Unsettled is the best word I can use to describe the overall weekend. 

Friday (March 24) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. NNJ has a chance of passing showers but the rest of New Jersey should stay dry with mixed sun and clouds. All of NJ is above freezing at the surface and warm air is moving in. Therefore, I’m not really seeing any wintry concerns for NJ today. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 40s with the warm frontal passage.

Saturday (March 25) high temperatures should reach or break 60 for most. NNJ and the NYC area might not reach the temperatures that interior CNJ/SNJ reaches (possibly 70+) due to the close-proximity boundary. It should still feel mild statewide however, especially with the higher sun-angle. Most of the day should feature mixed sun and clouds however isolated-to-scattered rain showers are possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-30s. With that said, CNJ and SNJ areas that peak out in the 60s (possibly 70s) should notice a solid drop in temperatures through sunset. Marine air should prevent low temperatures from falling below the lower-40s for most though. Isolated drizzle and light rain remains possible through dawn.

Sunday (March 26) high temperatures should struggle to break 50 statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more pockets of rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E. Ocean surface temperatures are still in the 40s which is why E winds will buffer our air temps cooler than Saturday. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 30s. Rain chances should continue overnight but not a washout for all. Scattered nuisance stuff.

An early look at next week indicates high temperatures in the 50s and 60s statewide with upper-30s/40s overnight. A few rain chances exist with an overall active pattern of low pressure systems moving through. Let’s revisit with more detail on Sunday.

I took the cover photo from Barnegat Light, NJ last year. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2017 11:25

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