Mild Conditions Expected (Feb 4-8)

Discussion: The brutal cold pattern is relaxing for this week. Over the next few mornings the main concern is fog with SNJ still having light snow pack under warm air advection. The phenomena known as freezing fog is possible overnight tonight for areas with fog but still at or under 32F. This is more likely for NW areas away from the ocean. We’re in for a transient thaw period through Friday with Tuesday being the warmest expected day. Thursday-Friday looks the rainiest after a somewhat uneventful but mild Monday-Wednesday. There’s a Tuesday weak frontal passage but it appears weak. At the upper levels lots of ridging is expected. We should then turn colder for the weekend ahead of our next snowy possibility early next week. There is also a stronger storm signal for later next week but let’s see how things evolve with the first system. If the Monday-Tuesday signal is still showing on Thursday then we’ll start serious tracking. Otherwise enjoy the warm thaw while you can.

Monday (Feb 4) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most with a few warmer spots likely for interior CNJ/SNJ. Fog is possible for AM hours but eventually skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.

Tuesday (Feb 5) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some CNJ and SNJ locations break 60. Fog is possible for AM hours but eventually skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most. Coastal SNJ could hang near-30.

Wednesday (Feb 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should increase in cloudiness throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most. Coastal SNJ could hang near-40.

Thursday (Feb 7) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most.

Friday (Feb 8) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for most. NNJ elevations might again hang in the 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible but ending for PM hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S during the day but change to colder NW winds by nighttime. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most. Coastal SNJ could hang near-30.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder temperatures returning. Highs in the 30s lows in the teens/20s type stuff. The next winter storm signal I’m following is Monday-Tuesday (Feb 11-12) followed by a stronger signal later next week (Feb 13-14). Just signals for now. Will take seriously if still alive later this week. In the meantime we bake. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™