Milder Conditions Expected (Dec 18-22)

Discussion: Real quick, scattered light precipitation could fall overnight tonight. Only NJ areas N of  I-78 would be cold enough for wintry precipitation. Very light amounts are expected but could still slick-up the early AM rush hour commute tomorrow.

Moving forward, the upper levels look to feature positive 500mb height anomalies from tomorrow through ~Dec 26. The SE ridge will try its best to flex over the lower 2/3 of the E US/W Atlantic Ocean, especially during the Dec 23-24 window. A transient colder period is likely in the Dec 20-21 window but warmer temperatures should dominate the overall Dec 18-26 period. This warm break/reload was well advertised. Therefore we’re mild (above-avg) Monday and Tuesday, cold (near-avg) Wednesday and Thursday, and then mild again (above avg) Friday through the weekend. A period of frontal precipitation is likely within Saturday-Sunday from a system tracking well to our NW. Another system could track from the expected W/C US trough to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the Monday-Tuesday period. As of right now it looks warm for NJ and weak but I’m just not ready to take wintry precipitation off the table for that yet. It’s too far out with a lot of players involved. The colder pattern is then set to reload from ~Dec 26 into the new year.  

Monday (Dec 18) high temperatures should range from low-40s to low-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with coastal areas hanging near-40.

Tuesday (Dec 19) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Is 60 possible somewhere in SNJ? Sure, why not? Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 30s again with coastal areas hanging in the lower-40s.

Wednesday (Dec 20) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Dec 21) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s again for most. NNJ elevations could fall into the teens while coastal areas hang near-30.

Friday (Dec 22) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most.

An early look at the weekend indicates mild and rainy conditions. This will surround the first system coming from the SW where conditions will likely be too warm for snow. The second system I’m watching is for next Monday-Tuesday. Right now that looks warm too but I’d like to get through Tuesday before ruling out winter-precipitation concerns. After that, long range indications suggest prolonged cold from ~Dec 26 into the new year. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Image Credit: Ben Wurst of Reclaimed rocking the Kaboom Hoodie.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™