Milder Start. Colder Finish (Nov 24-26)

Discussion: Not much to write home about. SW flow should dominate a milder feel through most of Saturday. Another mostly-dry cold front should then move through heading into Saturday night. Only trace amounts of precip are modeled so some might see nuisance sprinkles. Not seeing any heavy downpours along cold front though. Conditions then become colder and windier Saturday night through Sunday as NW flow takes over. We then moderate again early next week and stay relatively near/above average through the first week of December. The wintry pattern should then be game-on starting the second week of December if long-range oscillations hold true.

Friday (Nov 24) night into Saturday morning should drop into the 30s for most (20s for NNJ elevations) with clear starry skies.

Saturday (Nov 25) high temperatures should range from lower-50s to upper-50s NWNJ to SENJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny during the day with a small chance of late-afternoon/evening sprinkles. Winds should be light out of the SW until the cold front is through. Then winds should switch to the NW and pick up as overnight lows fall into the 30s for most.

Sunday (Nov 26) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most and possibly the 20s for NNJ elevations.

An early look at next week indicates another moderate period where temperatures could possibly threaten 60, especially for SENJ. Elevations and areas away from the ocean should still reach into the 50s. No major storm systems are on the horizon which takes us through Friday of next week. Long range indications suggest more flip-flopping with an overall above-average trend from then through the first week of December. There should be more 1-2 day cold shots between milder 3-4 day stretches. Winter should be game on starting in the second week of December. How long that cold pattern lasts is yet TBD.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™