Milder Week Expected (Jan 25-29)

We’re dropping well below freezing tonight but the week looks to moderate in temperature. The weekend holds great uncertainty as model guidance is trying to suggest another synoptic event. Let’s break it down.

Monday (Jan 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-30s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range between 20-30 (NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast).

Tuesday (Jan 26) high temperatures should range from upper-30s for NNJ elevations to upper-40s for the SNJ coast. Isolated-to-scattered rain showers are possible, moreso for NNJ than SNJ. SNJ therefore has a better chance for sunshine. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.

Wednesday (Jan 27) high temperatures should reach around 40 statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with another chance of an isolated rain shower. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the rest of New Jersey.

Thursday (Jan 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-30s statewide. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from teens for NNJ elevations to 20s along the SNJ coast as precipitation is possible overnight, depending on how the storm signal evolves.

Friday (Jan 29) high temperatures should range from lower-30s for NNJ elevations to about 40 along the SNJ coast. Depending on how the modeled storm system evolves, both wintry and non-wintry precipitation is possible but again, uncertain. Winds should be light out of the W/NW if no storm. Obviously, wind direction and intensity would vary around a passing low pressure system should that come into fruition. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for NNJ elevations and 30s for the rest of New Jersey.

An early look at the weekend indicates much uncertainty depending on what the Friday system does. As of right now, we’re looking like highs in the 30s and 40s with partly sunny skies (overnight lows in the 20s and 30s).

Weekend Storm Discussion: Today’s operational Euro showed a powerful coastal low ejecting over the Outer Banks and progressively moving out to sea. The temperature profile seems a little warm for accumulating snowfall but precipitation does make it into New Jersey. Euro ensembles suggest a decent storm signal which is why this has to at least be mentioned, especially since Thursday night into Friday is not that far away. The GFS has taken steps towards this solution but still keeps the northern and southern energy separated. At the upper-levels, there are definitely short-waves to watch, however they currently appear to phase too late for another major snow storm system for New Jersey.  I’ll be paying close attention to upper-level dynamics this week as the short waves make their way across the US. It is too soon to start freaking out so everyone relax and take a deep breath. However, should this system evolve more favorable on model guidance and begin to fit the pattern, I’ll start making videos again. Let’s see where we are tomorrow night on this.

In English: What happened today on model guidance doesn’t warrant panic just yet. Let’s watch it evolve. I need to see more model consistency before sounding off any alarms.

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I just took this photo tonight at Cedar Run Dock Road in West Creek, NJ. Have a great week and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™