Mixed Conditions Expected (Jan 22-26)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 22, 2018 12:00

Mixed Conditions Expected (Jan 22-26)

Discussion: Rainfall this week should end by tomorrow afternoon/early-evening with a cold front. Today should see a break in the precipitation once the warm front pushes N. Rain should then approach tonight from the W ahead of the cold front and should fall by tomorrow afternoon/early-evening. Therefore we start this week with mild wet conditions and end sunny and dry. The strongest winds should surround the frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday (strong/gusty out of the S ahead of front and then breezy/gusty out of the NW behind the front). Winds should subside and relax by early Thursday morning if not sooner Wednesday night. We’re then colder from Wednesday into Friday before moderating again for the weekend. As indicated in my last discussion, I still do not anticipate any major wintry events through the remainder of January. February looks more favorable for such as the NAO and AO are showing signs of negativity coupled with possibly a re-developing –EPO ridge. MJO (measuring tropical forcing in the Pacific-equator region) is showing favorable phases 8 into 1 a bit into February so we’ll have to watch this period. Regardless, it looks like the coldest air will be back towards our side of the hemisphere for the first half of February and I’ll be looking for synoptic storm signals within this period. If I had to make a guess today, I’d say the colder/wintry pattern kicks off again around ~Feb 4th. Until then we should see alternating periods ranging between mild and near-average temperatures with precipitation limited to frontal-type.

Monday (Jan 22) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with on-and-off light rain/drizzle possible. A period of clearing is expected once the warm front is through as we wait for the cold front. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as overnight rainfall likely persists. Overnight S winds should begin to pick up from SNJ to NNJ.

Tuesday (Jan 23) high temperatures should reach into the 50s statewide. Parts of CNJ and SNJ away from the ocean could reach into the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain possible through morning and afternoon hours. Wind should be strong and gusty statewide out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.

Wednesday (Jan 24) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to upper-20s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Jan 25) high temperatures should range from 30 to 40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from single-digits to lower-20s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Jan 26) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates milder temperatures returning ahead of a colder next week. At this point Saturday looks like the better day of the weekend with light rain possible on Sunday. We then head into February with the re-development of the colder/wintry pattern. If you missed my last discussion, I do not expect any major wintry events through the remainder of January. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 22, 2018 12:00

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