Mixed Conditions Possible (June 8-10)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 8, 2018 11:42

Mixed Conditions Possible (June 8-10)

Discussion: A small area of high pressure has moved just off the Delmarva Peninsula. This will give most of NJ SW flow today which will lead to warmer temperatures with noticeably increased humidity compared to prior days. Today should be mostly dry statewide with the exception of any super isolated showers or t-storms that might form from any marginal instability and sea breeze front lift. Today is likely good though. Tomorrow (Saturday) and Sunday both carry the chance for scattered rain showers, mainly for SNJ. We’ll have a Bermuda high forcing moist conditions northward but that will be met with front-side Canadian high N flow. Just like last weekend, the Canadian high could win out and keep the boundary just S of even SNJ…or maybe right through extreme SNJ. Either way, Cape May County has a better shot of rain than say Sussex County due to the aforementioned description of boundary proximity. We might just get through this weekend mostly dry with most of the rain holding off until late Sunday night or even Monday. It’s a very hard call and this is the best I can do given all data and live observations considered. After whatever rainfall ends Monday evening, we might be looking at a nice week ahead even leading into next weekend.

Friday (June 8) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most of interior NJ. Coastal regions should top out in the 70s. Skies should range from partly to mostly-sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (June 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. A few interior locations could break 80 here and there. Skies should feature variable cloudiness. Of all NJ, SNJ has the best chance to see some scattered rain showers (from Philadelphia over to Toms River and S of that latitude). NNJ and CNJ have a smaller chance of such but have the best chance to stay dry during the day. As we head into late-afternoon/evening and especially overnight hours, the chance for rain increases. I would plan for showers just in case, given the uncertainty and dynamics up there. But I wouldn’t be that surprised if many stay dry with the heaviest rainfall missing to the S of NJ. It’s far from a slam dunk forecast for dry vs wet so sometimes you just need to leave open the widest range of possibility (partly sunny skies to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain). Winds should be light out of the SE (which could protect immediate coastal regions with marine stability). Overnight lows should again range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (June 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few periods of sunny breaks, especially N of I-195. Areas S of I-195 have a better chance for increased cloud coverage. More rainfall is possible but again, of a scattered nature and more so for SNJ than NNJ. The ideal scenario of rain missing to the S of even SNJ is on the table but not guaranteed. Not a statewide washout. Again, plan for the nuisance of scattered rainfall but hope we actually luck out for a weekend. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ as a more solid chance of rainfall approaches overnight into Monday.

An early look at next week indicates possibly a wet start followed by a prolonged period of dry conditions. Imagine that! Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Who’s coming to our dinner music party for cancer assistance this year?

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 8, 2018 11:42

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