Mixed-Weather Expected (Dec 16-18)

Expect a roller coaster of temperature and precipitation types this weekend. Let’s break it down…

Disco: Arctic high pressure is passing over VA/Delmarva, just to our S, into the Atlantic Ocean. We’re no longer subject to the strong northerly cold winds ahead of the high. We’re actually under very stable sinking air at the moment associated with the center of the high. As the high drifts E, we will become subject to southerly flow which will warm the region from S to N. This will happen as precipitation, associated with a US-crossing transferring series of low pressure systems, moves in from the W. The warm sector of low pressure will contribute to warmer southerly flow. Eventually precipitation will chance to rain but there are wintry concerns during the changeover which should take place overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. We’re looking at a light-to-moderate snow thump followed by an icy transition to rain from SNJ to NNJ between about 4am and noon. We’ll be able to watch the line of freezing move from S to N on radar obs. A lull in precipitation is possible Sat PM but then more rain is expected Sunday. Temperatures then crash Sunday PM along another cold front which could transition any leftover rain back to snow Sunday PM. 

Friday (Dec 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 20s statewide. Small chance that immediate coastal areas flirt with 30. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and twenties for the rest of the State. Snow is possible overnight. It could start as early as 10PM for WNJ as it will be coming from the W. Our final snow map and call will be posted at 5PM this evening.

Saturday (Dec 17) high temperatures might be held in the upper-30s for NNJ elevations but the rest of New Jersey should have no problem soaring into the 40s and 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Early morning snow should change to a period of ice and then all rain. Again, our final snow map and call will be released at 5PM this evening. We could see a lull in precipitation during Saturday PM hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should only fall into the 40s for most with interior/elevations possibly dipping back into the 30s.

Sunday (Dec 18) high temperatures should reach into the 50s statewide. SNJ and the immediate coast could take a run at 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of widespread rainfall. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W. Temperatures should crash by early evening and into overnight hours…well below freezing. Any leftover precipitation could change back to snow before everything tapers off for early Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates near-average temperatures to start and above-average temperatures through Christmas. There is some modeled activity for a few systems to come through. They would have to thread the needle to bring any wintry concerns to our area. Possible but not probable. The most probable Christmas scenario at this point is mild and possibly rainy. After these 2 early-winter cold shots, the pattern will reload and should likely return closer to New Years.

Thousands of My Pocket Meteorologist customers have signed up to enjoy hyper-local text notifications that go way above and beyond the free services such as this article above. Highly recommended for snow plowing and outdoor businesses or simply the weather geek who needs the absolute best analysis in their pocket. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™