Mixed-Weather Expected (Oct 21-23)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 20, 2016 21:48

Mixed-Weather Expected (Oct 21-23)

This weekend should feel WAY different than this week felt…

Nerdy Disco: An upper level shortwave, currently developing over the N Central US, should deepen and close off over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US regions between now and Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring an area of potential tropical development to the NE of the Bahamas. The latest data suggests less of a chance of this forming into Tropical Storm Otto, but the possibility has not yet been completely taken off the table. Regardless, this surface low will eventually phase into the upper-level low and likely produce a sub-980mb mid-to-high latitude cyclone for New England and SE Canada. The pressure gradient behind this system, sandwiched between an area of high pressure over the SE US, will produce windy conditions for our area out of the NW. With that said, a cold overall jet at multiple layers will chill the weekend down after a very warm week. Would’t be surprised if a few non-accumulating snow flakes fly for at least the Catskill Mountains and points NE. It wouldn’t take a far cry for the Poconos and/or the NWNJ elevations to see the same but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Cold air would have to be brought down from aloft with heavier pockets of precipitation. The cold air is certainly up there but that’s a dice roll at this point.

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Friday (Oct 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered rainfall likely. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should dip into the 40s for most of NJ with the immediate coast possibly hanging in the lower-50s.

Saturday (Oct 22) high temperatures should fail to escape the 50s for most. Skies should start mostly cloudy and clear from S to N. Scattered rain showers should also clear from S to N throughout the day but might stay around into the evening for NNJ. Winds should be gusty out of the NW (15-25 sustained with gusts to 40mph). Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most of NJ with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 30s. Allow a 1% chance of a few wet snowflakes mixing into the cold rain for NNJ elevations above 1200 feet. Wind chills should make it feel even colder as strong NW flow persists under moon-lit clearing skies.

Sunday (Oct 23) high temperatures should fail to escape the 50s for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state should crack into the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with the immediate coast possibly hanging in the lower-50s. Winds should continue to subside overnight into Monday.

An early look at next week indicates another colder dip mid-week with some rain possible Wednesday into Thursday. Let’s revisit in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 20, 2016 21:48

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