More Snow Possible (Mar 17-19)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 16, 2017 21:29

More Snow Possible (Mar 17-19)

The weekend looks very unsettled with more rain and snow possible. Let’s break it down…

Disco: High pressure will have control of Friday and keep it somewhat uneventful as we continue to moderate in temperature. A warm front will then approach and stall over our region through Saturday. This presents the opportunity for precipitation to break out between Friday night and early Sunday morning. A low should then transfer along the boundary to the ocean after running into high pressure over Maine. In the wake of this transfer will exist remnant lifting enhanced by an upper-level low. It will try to call what we know as an inverted trough for the final precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There are temperatures issues. NNJ obviously will have the best chance to see a few inches of accumulation stack up. Let’s say N of I-80…maybe N of I-78. For all areas S of that, there’s a lot working against accumulations. I wouldn’t be surprised to see non-accumulating snow make it S to I-195 though, maybe a few miles S of that.

In English: I’d give it a 75% chance of trace-to-light accumulations in NNJ this Friday night through Sunday morning. CNJ and SNJ would most likely see rain and/or snowfall that struggles to accumulate. Let’s allow a 25% chance of light-to-significant accumulations in NNJ. CNJ might see light accumulations in that case while SNJ struggles to accumulate any snow that makes it to the ground. Again, SNJ should be rain either way so the inverted trough over-performance would primarily affect NNJ and parts of CNJ. Here’s the detailed weekend outlook:

Friday (Mar 17) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s/lower-40s statewide. Skies should start sunny but increase in cloud coverage heading into evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s away from the ocean, especially for NNJ elevations. SNJ and coastal regions might only fall into the 30s. Any precipitation that moves in ahead of the warm front overnight could fall as snow but the idea is that snow would change to rain from S to N until about the I-78/I-80 area by Saturday morning.

Saturday (Mar 18) high temperatures should reach into the 40s for most. NNJ should hang in the 30s. Snowfall is possible, primarily for NNJ. I’m not enthused on road accumulations but can certainly understand wet snow accumulations on natural surfaces. SNJ is most likely looking at periods of rain. See the In English section above for more snow details. Winds should be light out of the SW for CNJ/SNJ and light out of the E/NE for NNJ. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for NNJ and 30s for the rest of New Jersey. Snowfall remains possible through Sunday morning.

Sunday (Mar 19) high temperatures should reach into the 40s statewide. AM hours could feature ending-precipitation (snow for NNJ/rain or non-accumulating snow for SNJ). With any luck we’ll see the sun during afternoon/early-evening hours but clouds could linger post-precipitation wrap-up.

An early look at next week indicates more blah weather. Highs should reach into the 40s during the day however overnight lows could still fall below freezing. Next weekend looks warmer at first glance but that could come with a frontal passage of rain and thunderstorms. Let’s revisit on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 16, 2017 21:29

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