More Volatile Weather Expected (Nov 25-27)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 24, 2016 12:57

More Volatile Weather Expected (Nov 25-27)

Like last weekend, we’ll transition from mild to cold between Friday and Sunday. Let’s break it down…

Disco: A weak area of low pressure will be transfering from the Great Lakes area to just off the Mid-Atlantic US coast between now and Saturday morning. Scattered precipitation will likely accompany such, especially when the low pressure wraps up slightly off our coast late Friday into early Saturday morning. A cold front will be pushing through behind the unsettled air mass and should likley end precipitation chances by late Saturday morning, if not earlier. We’ll then see winds pick up out of the W/NW which should last from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. I don’t expect winds to be as strong as this last weekend but still noticeably windy. Small chances for isolated flurries and snow showers during this period will naturally exist from cold flow over the warmer Great Lakes (50-55 SST). Such will have to be nowcasted due to their extreme random nature. Cold and windy is the more confident forecast from midway-through-Saturday into Monday. 

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Friday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with the immediate coast likely hanging in the 40s.

Saturday (Nov 26) high temperatures could just break 50 in parts of CNJ and SNJ. NNJ elevations and surrounding parts of NNJ could be held in the 40s. It depends on cold front timing. Skies could start out mostly cloudy with AM rain but should transition to scattered clouds as the cold front passes through. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with 20s possible inland, especially at higher elevations. Overnight winds should persist.

Sunday (Nov 27) high temperatures should have trouble escaping the 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most. I could see NNJ elevations dipping into the teens while the immediate coast hangs right around 32.

An early look at next week indicates winds and temperatures moderating to start. A decent amount of rainfall is modeled along a frontal system between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. We should surge in temperature ahead of that front with southerly winds. We should then drop in temperature behind that cold front. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

We’re getting closer to winter though and we’re still looking at a flip towards a colder and snowier pattern once the Pacific jet stream relaxes some. Long-range model guidance is suggesting this by the second week of December with more flip-flopping expected from now until then. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 24, 2016 12:57

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