Mostly Nice Weekend Expected (June 10-12)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 10, 2016 10:45

Mostly Nice Weekend Expected (June 10-12)

Friday and Sunday are looking pretty nice. Saturday is complicated but not an all day washout. Let’s break it down:

Friday (June 10) high temperatures should range in the 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should continue to relax out of the W/NW throughout the day and eventually become light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s in the NNJ elevations to lower-60s along the coast.

Saturday (June 10) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. NNJ elevations and the extreme SNJ coast might be held in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should feature sun and clouds on either side of an expected period of rain and possibly thunderstorms. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW in general but would obviously become temporarily gusty for any areas directly hit by a thunderstorm. Overnight lows might only fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide due to the warm frontal passage moving through.

Saturday Disco: 250mb and 500mb flow analysis are straight forward. It’s all blowing from NW to SE which will guide our upper-level energy from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. We also have a strong lower-level jet behind the warm front at 850mb. Due to the nature of a warm frontal passage, our area starts with moderate amounts of wind shear and low instability ahead of the warm front. Behind the warm front are higher levels of instability but lower levels of wind shear. This all will slide from W/SW to E/NE at the lower levels. The upper-levels could assist with lifting and verify the stronger thunderstorm threat but it all comes down to timing. It would be a thread the needle situation for a widespread damaging wind event to occur. It could happen but to call for it is placing all eggs in a basket of perfect timing. Therefore, scattered-to-widespread gusty rainfall with just strong embedded thunderstorms is the more conservative call to make. We’ll have to play the severe potential by ear.

In English: The timing of Saturday is too difficult for me to pin down by the hour. The area of energy and precipitation is moving incredibly fast from the Great Lakes area through our region. Therefore, the best I can do is give a broad window of timing. Saturday could start and end okay, dismissing the thought of an all day washout. A period of rain and thunderstorms however, some possibly severe, is possible between late-morning and early evening. We’ll simply have to play the radar on Saturday for exact hourly timing. I encourage you not to place too much faith in hourly forecast apps/sites/etc. Those represent model guidance output only, and sometimes from only one model. They will chance every 6 hours with each model update and often do not feature human analysis (taking all models and live observations into account). The best thing to do is take a step back and just know that a disruptive, possibly damaging wind, period is possible on Saturday between late-morning and early-evening. Keep an eye to the NW sky and pay attention to radar analysis. I’ll be posting it.

Sunday (June 11) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. NNJ elevations might be held in the mid-to-upper 70s. CNJ/SNJ areas away from the ocean could take a run at or at least flirt with 90. The SNJ coast might just break 80. We’ll see. Regardless, skies should be mostly sunny once any early AM remnants move out. As of right now, no rain or storms are expected but you can never rule out an isolated afternoon pop-up. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s in the NNJ elevations to lower-60s along the coast.

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An early look at next week indicates pretty decent conditions with highs in the 70s/80s, plenty of sunshine, but the typical chance for afternoon-evening instability-driven pop-up showers and thunderstorms that comes with any given late-spring New Jersey day. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 10, 2016 10:45

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