Mostly Nice Weekend Expected (Nov 20-22)

High pressure should dominate our region for most of the weekend with a cool and crisp late-fall feel. A rapidly deepening low pressure system will track through the southern Great Lakes and up into Canada. This should drag another cold front through to close out the weekend and start next week. As of right now, the frontal passage looks “mostly” dry. With that said we have to allow a small chance of showers on Sunday. Let’s break it down:

Friday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-moderate out of the W/NW-NW. Overnight lows should fall into to the 20s for NNJ elevations and 30s for the rest of New Jersey.

Saturday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for NNJ elevations and low-to-mid 50s for the rest of New Jersey. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light and vary from S to E as high pressure moves away and low pressure approaches our west. Overnight lows should fall into to the 30s for NNJ elevations and 40s for the rest of the state.

Sunday (Nov 22) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for NNJ elevations and low-to-mid 50s for the rest of New Jersey. There is a small chance of light showers, moreso for NWNJ than SENJ. Only a small chance though as again, the frontal passage is modeled pretty dry overall. With that said, a mixed bag of sun and clouds is likely what will play out for most.  Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW as the powerful low to our W moves into Canada. Overnight lows should fall into to the 20s for NNJ elevations and 30s for the rest of New Jersey.

An early look at next week indicates a colder start with highs struggling to get out of the 40s on Monday followed by an even colder Monday night. Temperatures should then moderate by mid-week back into daytime highs well into the 50s. 60 could be possible for lower elevations heading into the weekend. The current pattern along with consensual model guidance supports mild weather continuing through Thanksgiving Weekend.

FWIW, models are beginning to show a colder air mass invasion next Sunday. If that were to coincide with frontal precipitation then some areas to our N and W could be looking at their first possible snow (if and only if the colder air can change the rain along the frontal boundary to snow). The snow would likely transition to rain before reaching New Jersey. This is a little outside of my comfort zone so we’ll have to keep an eye on it through next week. Regardless, Thanksgiving Day looks mild for now.

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Have a great weekend and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™