Much Needed Rainfall Expected (Sept 26-30)

It looks like some much needed rainfall is possible this week. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: I wouldn’t call the entire week a washout. We should still start with a very nice Monday as the high pressure that brought us the heavenly weekend weather slowly departs into the ocean. Monday night into Tuesday morning might feel slightly warmer as high pressure return flow assists the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front —that’s attached to a low pressure system in Canada. A shot of rain is possible along and ahead of that cold front Tuesday morning-afternoon but nothing prolonged or sustained/widespread. The rest of Tuesday into Wednesday might feature some leftover clouds/rainfall, especially if the cold front fails to push through all of the SE NJ coast. A closed-off upper-level low will then swing through the Ohio Valley region and possibly pull a surface low in from the immediate Mid-Atlantic US coast. This would present a possible prolonged rainy and breezy/windy period from Wednesday night through at least Friday. Hopefully this clears out for the weekend but if the upper-level low/trough lingers, then unsettled conditions could last into the weekend.

Monday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide with continued pleasant conditions. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 50s.

Tuesday (Sept 27) high temperatures should hover off around 70 statewide. Rain is possible from early AM through afternoon hours. NWNJ will clear earlier than SENJ. SENJ might see rain linger into overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the WSW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 40s.

Wednesday (Sept 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds during the day. Eventually clouds and rain could move in heading into overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the E at first but should pick up heading into overnight hours, especially along the coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 50s.

Thursday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach  the low-to-mid 70s for most. NNJ elevations might top out in the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible the entire day. Winds should be out of the E/NE…lighter inland and windier along the coast. This is looking like a run-of-mill easterly fetch of onshore flow so minor-to-moderate coastal flooding could accompany. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 50s.

Friday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach  the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide. Skies should be partly-t0-mostly cloudy with more rain possible. Winds should remain out of the E/NE again, lighter inland and windier along the coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal areas possibly hanging onto 60s.

An early look at the weekend indicated rain possibly lingering into Saturday. It all revolves around how long the coastal low hangs around and how much it interacts with the upper-level low over the Ohio Valley. Sunday looks better than Saturday as of now but let’s revisit in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™