November Discussion with WeatherTrends360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 1, 2018 15:19

November Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how November 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj11-2018

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj211-2018

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj11-2018

Discussion: The common theme for all three above areas of NJ is a volatile first-third of November followed by a more consistent two-thirds of November. That means temperatures are more likely to fluctuate in the first 10 days of November between mild and cold. We’re mild now, colder for Nov 3-5, mild again for Nov 6-7 and then consistently cooler/colder for the rest of the month as we continue normal annular temperature decline into winter. The Nov 6-7 period should be the last 70 degree measurement and only for interior CNJ/SNJ. The rest of NJ should reach into the 60s. After that (for the rest of November), highs should range from 40s to 50s (NNJ to SNJ) and lows should range from 30s to 40s (NNJ to SNJ). Precipitation chances appear to be well-distributed throughout the month meaning there are no periods wetter than others. Looks like 1-2 days of rain every 3-5 days. It’s not uncommon for snow to make an appearance in November, especially for NNJ elevations. For the rest of the lower coastal plain, it’s happened before but rare to see anything more than cold rain. It does however look like December should start cold. At that point it will be game-on to start tracking statewide snow possibilities. Everyone have a great month of November and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 1, 2018 15:19

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