Oct 11: Michael Remnants Approaching

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 11, 2018 16:49

Oct 11: Michael Remnants Approaching

After delivering catastrophic damage to the Florida panhandle and many other instances of secondary damage to parts of the SE US, Michael’s remnants have weakened to tropical storm criteria. The energy should track from its current ~interior South Carolina location over Delmarva and through the 40N/70W benchmark. During this time the system should transition into a sub-tropical cyclone before ultimately moving out into the N Atlantic Ocean and absorbing into the jet stream.

For New Jersey this means a rainy and windy tonight through tomorrow with embedded thunderstorms possible. There’s some funky dynamics aloft with the remnant cyclonic flow beneath the approaching upper jet. Rainfall amounts should vary with NWNJ seeing the least and SENJ seeing the most. My best guess is anything from a half-inch in NWNJ up to 4 inches in extreme SENJ. Winds could gust to 50mph for the SENJ coastal area. Less for points inland and N of SENJ. The highest winds should occur on the back side of the storm tomorrow morning through afternoon/evening (out of the N/NW). This flow should then usher in a colder and drier air mass for the rest of the weekend—much colder when compared to recent conditions.

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In English: Rain and wind are expected this evening through tomorrow morning. Embedded thunderstorms are possible. As little as a half-inch for NWNJ and as much as 4+ inches for extreme SENJ. Winds should be moderate-to-high with gusts to 40mph+ possible. The rain should cut off by late tomorrow morning but colder N/NW winds should persist through tomorrow afternoon/evening. That should set the stage for true fall weekend conditions possibly sustaining for a while. I’ll have the full weekend outlook out later this evening. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 11, 2018 16:49

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