Oct 24: Coastal Storm Update

Discussion: Willa’s remnant upper-level energy will ultimately develop into an upper-level low over the E US this weekend. This trough will be fed an upper-level shortwave from the pacific jet that will be responsible for driving our early weekend storm system at the surface. It’s not a superstorm. In fact, without a retrograde or even stall, I’m having a tough time even calling it a nor’easter.  It looks more like a traditional October coastal low in my opinion.

Total precipitation on a large general scale appears to be 1-2 inches of rain. Of course via mesoscale dynamics you’re going to have some local areas with slightly less and some with slightly more. Given the more progressive timing trend, I doubt anyone would crack 4 inches. 3 maybe. Wind should be felt most along the immediate E Jersey coast. Such areas could see sustained winds of 20-25mph with gusts to 40mph+. Areas away from the E Jersey coast should see lesser value winds than that. NOAA tidal guidance suggests minor stage coastal flooding is probable for the E Jersey coast with moderate stage coastal flooding possible. Again, given the progressive trend in storm speed, it’s less time for the easterly fetch to produce a higher-impact storm surge.

Timing has definitely trended towards a shorter-duration period of heavy rainfall—starting earlier Friday and ending earlier on Saturday. The rest of Saturday however looks very unsettled with the coastal low still in close proximity of NJ. Looks like a cloudy/misty/light rain at times situation with gusty winds until at least early-evening hours of Saturday. Sunday looks relatively okay.

In English: Rain should start on Friday by early-evening hours. It should pick up intensity after sun down with gusty winds overnight into Saturday. While the heavy rain may end as early as late-Saturday morning, cloudy/misty/gusty conditions should continue for most daylight hours of Saturday. The high tide near/just before noon on Saturday is the only high tide to watch for minor coastal flooding concerns.  Conditions should improve (light rain ending/winds subsiding) by late-Saturday night yielding a mostly-dry Sunday. The bottom line… The Friday-Saturday system is an outdoor plan bummer, not a historic storm. Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™