Oct 31: Weekend Storm Update

Marc Franz Jr.
By Marc Franz Jr. October 31, 2014 10:25

Oct 31: Weekend Storm Update

TRICK TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST… **INVERTED TROUGH**, CHILLY RAIN & WIND… COAST = BRUNT… READ IT ALL…

Our energy that will develop into our main coastal Low for Saturday is diving through the Midwest this AM as seen in Water Vapor in 1st image – below. You can see the trough becoming negatively tilted as well (I drew in trough):

negative tilted trough

A combination (merging) of 3 lows will begin to strengthen off of VA/NC waters before tracking NE offshore of NJ Saturday. As this occurs, periods of Rain will be thrown to the coast starting SAT AM, but an inverted trough (see image #2 – below; you can see thin band of heavier rain) looks to try and set up along our coast. This is where it gets tricky…

heavy band of rain

What is an inverted trough? Typical troughs in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are characterized by decreasing atmospheric pressure from south to north, while inverted troughs are characterized by decreasing pressure from north to south. These are very very tricky to forecast (majority do not develop), but a couple computer models (NAM, CMC, ECMWF) are suggesting we see this set up along NJ coast. Like turning on a thin atmospheric hose and aiming it at one location. This can drastically change rainfall amounts for those who experience it. Have to watch it very closely.

**EXPECTED RAINFALL ALONG NJ COAST (image #3 – below): 1/2″-1″, maybe more depending on inverted trough set-up. Heaviest SENJ:

4

As the storm develops offshore, a tighter pressure gradient (stronger winds) will result between this Low & High Pressure to the west. Winds NNE@15-25mph, with gusts up to 35mph along the coast (bottom of image #4 – below). Minor tidal flooding is possible with high tide Saturday. Highs low-mid 50’s (top of image #4 – below), lows ~40°, wind chills in the 20’s. Dress accordingly!!

3b

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Marc Franz Jr.
By Marc Franz Jr. October 31, 2014 10:25

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