Summery Weekend Expected (May 27-30)

Updated 12:41PM 5-28-2016:

High pressure will build near the Bermuda region which will allow southerly flow to takeover and provide warmer temperatures throughout the region. Humidity will be noticeable which is why it should feel summery for at least 3 of the 4 days. With that comes the chance for afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms every day of the weekend. They will be of “hit-or-miss” nature so by no means are we talking about prolonged rainfall or a washout. Just your typical summer day with pop-up cells during PM hours that last anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour or so. It will take time for instability to build each day so mornings and early afternoons are likely okay as are evenings when the instability-driven cells die off.  For that time between however I cannot promise a rain/storm-free environment. It is what it is.

Model Guidance has taken a turn for the worse regarding Sunday night into Monday. Remnants from the land-falling weak tropical system approaching South Carolina will team up with a frontal boundary passage to make for a cloudy and possibly rainy/stormy Monday. Clouds could increase as early as Sunday evening with most of Sunday still being okay. It should all clear out sometime between Monday evening and early Tuesday. With any luck, some of Monday’s daylight hours could be salvaged slightly before sunset. We’ll see. To play it safe, let’s assume it lingers through Monday evening.

Friday (May 27) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most and possibly break 90 away from the ocean. The immediate coast could be held in the mid-70s. Most of the day should be sunny but scattered afternoon-evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Saturday (May 28) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most and possibly break 90 away from the ocean again. The immediate coast could be held in the mid-70s. Saturday looks the least stormy with only isolated afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Sunday (May 29) high temperatures should just break 80 inland and just break 70 along the coast. Again, most of the day should feature pleasant sun and clouds but afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms are possible. Cloud cover could increase towards evening hours in anticipation for rainfall on Monday. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Monday (May 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s away from the ocean. Skies should be mostly cloudy. On-and-off rainfall and possibly thunderstorms are possible. Winds should vary with rainfall but generally be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Keeping it Real: The bottom line is you’re going to have plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures and humidity for most of the weekend. There are chances for rain/storms each day but they will come and go between afternoon and evening hours. Monday was going to follow suit but tropical systems can wreak havoc to forecasts at the last minute. The way I am going to play it is to utilize mornings and afternoons for outside stuff while knowing it could cloud up and storm between 2PM and 8PM in “hit-or-miss” fashion. Some will get stormed on. Others will say “what storm?” I’ll then enjoy the warmer overnight temperatures outside as much as I can. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures less summery—right about where they should be for this time of year (late spring). Another frontal passage could bring rain and storms for next weekend. I’m starting to see another heat wave on long-range model guidance but lets take that with the grain of salt. Everyone have a great Memorial Day Weekend. A special remembrence to those who faught and died serving our great nation! Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™