Sunny Weekend Expected (Feb 5-7)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 5, 2016 19:53

Sunny Weekend Expected (Feb 5-7)

Today we saw lots of melting but tonight we’ll see lots of freezing. The weekend looks pretty good but next week is full of potential problems. Let’s break it down.

Tonight’s temperatures should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the rest of the state. Winds should be light out of the NW. Hopefully most of the melted snow has now evaporated. Anything that has not could present black ice and sidewalk problems for untreated surfaces so please be careful.

Saturday (Feb 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from about 20-30 from NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast.

Sunday (Feb 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for NNJ elevations and 30s for the rest of the state.

KaboomWinterHats

An early look at next week indicates tremendous uncertainty revolving around 2 main pieces of energy. The first will be a powerful offshore storm that should miss out to sea on Monday (might hit OBX area). Should this trend to the NW then it could bring coastal NJ in on some precipitation. I’ll be watching this but again, out to sea for now.

The second piece of energy comes in the form of a clipper that transfers from the SE Great Lakes area to somewhere along the east coast. It then goes on to drag an inverted trough across New Jersey. This would happen in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. Just the thought of a clipper transferring to an inverted trough makes me cringe about the forecasting difficulty. After what happened last year with Juno, I might have to take a multiple solution/scenario approach to this (least impact vs most probable impact vs highest impact).

In English: Something is brewing in the Feb 8-10 period. I’ll have my initial detailed thoughts posted tomorrow evening with a video. This gives me two primary model suites to review between now and then (all data including operational and ensemble runs). I thank you for your patience and understanding. Otherwise have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 5, 2016 19:53

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