Taking a Peek at December

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 30, 2015 20:00

Taking a Peek at December

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms for an early peek at how December plays out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the upper elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

nnj

Higher Elevation Discussion: Aside from the obvious temperature spike surrounding this week’s rain system, temperatures look to take a steady decline through most of December. Generally we are looking at temperatures relatively average/slightly above average for the first half of December followed by a few colder fluctuations in the second half. With that pattern in sight, expect longer periods of seasonably mild conditions (up to 4-5 days) with shorter transient periods of cold (as little as 12-24 hours). Precipitation appears to be average through December. Whether or not precipitation aligns with a transient cold air mass is a “thread the needle” situation regarding snowfall. This is far from a favorable December winter storm setup but such is not impossible. Snowfall is much more likely in this New Jersey Geographic region than the others. Overnight hours favor such as daytime temps look to stay above freezing for the entire month. Plenty of teens/20s overnight though. As you know, I’ll be watching.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

cnj

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: Aside from the obvious temperature spike surrounding this week’s rain system, temperatures look to take a steady decline through most of December. Generally we are looking at temperatures relatively average/slightly above average for the first half of December followed by a few colder fluctuations in the second half. With that pattern in sight, expect longer periods of seasonably mild conditions (up to 4-5 days) with shorter transient periods of cold (as little as 12-24 hours). Precipitation appears to be average through December. Whether or not precipitation aligns with a transient cold air mass is a “thread the needle” situation regarding snowfall. This is far from a favorable December winter storm setup but such is not impossible. Snowfall is less likely in this New Jersey Geographic region but generally has a better chance the further NW you are. Overnight hours favor such as daytime temps look to stay above freezing for the entire month. Plenty of below-freezing opportunities overnight though. As you know, I’ll be watching.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

snj

Coastal Region Discussion: Aside from the obvious temperature spike surrounding this week’s rain system, temperatures look to take a steady decline through most of December. Generally we are looking at temperatures relatively average/slightly above average for the first half of December followed by a few colder fluctuations in the second half. With that pattern in sight, expect longer periods of seasonably mild conditions (up to 4-5 days) with shorter transient periods of cold (as little as 12-24 hours). Precipitation appears to be average through December. Whether or not precipitation aligns with a transient cold air mass is a “thread the needle” situation regarding snowfall. This is far from a favorable December winter storm setup but such is not impossible. Snowfall is the least likely in this New Jersey Geographic region mostly from ocean influence. It would likely have to happen overnight which only the second half of December would favor. As you know, I’ll be watching.

Summary: Based on the data from Weathertrends 360 and the general pattern I see through the long-range forecasting period, I think we’re looking warm and mild overall for “December in New Jersey” with adequate rainfall. That’s not to say that a few transient cold shots can’t come through and even produce some snowfall. We’re definitely not screaming cold and snowy however and the teleconnections are garbage in terms of supporting any east coast snow storm development. Most storms are cutting way to our W and keeping most winter weather west of the Mississippi. Let’s get closer to the Christmas period to see if any true Arctic air wants to push south and interact with the subtropical jet stream.

Hurricane season has concluded for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Now it’s coastal storm/nor’easter time and whether or not there is cold air for the system to work with.

In English: Likely a warmer December overall with little snowfall but plenty of rain. Everyone have a wonderful December and be safe! JC

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Image Credit: Reed Wurst taken at the Wading River Christmas Tree Farm by Ben Wurst of Reclaimed

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 30, 2015 20:00

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