Unsettled Conditions Continue (May 14-18)

Discussion: The 250mb jet is modeled very zonal this week to the N of NJ. Not much to comment on at 500mb either aside from a prolonged period of above-average height anomalies. Most shortwaves hang in the W US. The lower levels however are still subject to unsettled conditions. The Bermuda high should park and hold through the weekend which should add convergence zones over the Mid-Atlantic US via southerly return flow meeting the boundary. An area of weak high pressure in Canada should float through from W to E and reinforce the boundary convergence with its front-side northerly flow. The most intense thunderstorms of the week should occur Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning when a surface low pops while progressively passing. This will come after a full Tuesday of diurnal destabilization. Other than that, there’s basically a chance for showers and less-intense thunderstorms every day from now through the weekend. Not complete washout days though! Mostly dry days with short-duration periods of rain and storms.

Monday (May 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most of NJ. Immediate coastal areas might struggle to escape the upper-60s. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy/raw earlier in the day to partly sunny by sunset. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Tuesday (May 15) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s for most of NJ. I could see interior CNJ/SNJ taking a run at 90. Immediate coastal areas might struggle to escape the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be partly-sunny with noticeably increased humidity most of the day but showers and thunderstorms are possible towards evening/overnight hours. I’ll narrow timing down in an update tomorrow. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again hang in the 60s for most.

Wednesday (May 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. Skies should remain unsettled and at least partly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (May 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most of NJ. Skies should range from partly sunny to mostly cloudy NNJ to SNJ. SNJ has a better chance to see showers and thunderstorms than NNJ. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most of NJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures in the 70s (maybe low-80s for some). Unsettled conditions look to continue. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™