Unsettled Mild Weekend Expected (Jan 8-10)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 8, 2016 12:51

Unsettled Mild Weekend Expected (Jan 8-10)

This weekend will be the last mild period for a while. After the expected rainfall, a cold front passes through and we’re then sustainably colder (seasonal for January) well into the long-range with several chances of snow. Let’s break it down.

Friday (Jan 8) high temperatures should range from lower-40s for NNJ elevations to about 50 along the SENJ coast. Expect a decent amount of cloud coverage with light NE winds. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s for NNJ elevations to mid-40s along the SENJ coast. Because of NNJ elevations dipping below freezing…fog, drizzle and light rain could slick up the roads overnight so please be careful up there!

Saturday (Jan 9) high temperatures should range from lower-40s for NNJ elevations to mid-50 along the SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly cloudy with AM fog and locally isolated drizzle. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s for NNJ elevations to about 50 along the SENJ coast as rainfall approaches the region.

Sunday (Jan 10) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to 60 statewide as we become warm-sectored by the passing mid-latitude cyclone to our NW. Rainfall is expected but might be more of a convective nature (shorter period with heavier amounts for AM hours) than an all day washout. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear some embedded thunderstorms within the heaviest bands of passing rainfall. Once clear (anytime between late-morning and late-afternoon) the cold front should then gradually move through and drop the entire state below freezing for overnight hours. Winds should be breezy out of the SW before the front and then breezy out of the W/NW afterwards. Whatever doesn’t evaporate (small puddles, etc) should freeze overnight into Monday so keep that in mind.

An early look at next week indicates overall colder conditions. I’m thinking highs struggling to break 30 for NNJ elevations and struggling to break 40 for the rest of New Jersey. Nothing record breaking but seasonal for January…which is cold enough.

However, we’ll be in a very favorable pattern for winter storm development for the next few weeks. While the surface has been modeled all over the place, the upper levels have been more consistent in showing conditions (solutions) more favorable for snowfall. As of right now, a clipper system (and associated frontal passage) is modeled to bring snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. This is followed by a continued favorable but inconsistent pattern closing out the week and leading into the following week. For now, I’m going to continue monitoring the Tuesday-Wednesday possible clipper/front. Any surface solution modeled beyond the mid-range forecasting period should be taken with the grain of salt. Tuesday is not that far away though.

With that said, a frontal passage from the southern side of a clipper would bust overnight lows and daytime temperatures colder than expected Wednesday into Thursday—especially with possible snow on the ground and a NW Arctic jet.

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Have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 8, 2016 12:51

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