Unsettled Start. Beautiful Finish (July 7-9)

We start out with some rain and storms for Friday-Saturday then finish with a beautiful Sunday. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The upper-level jet will continue to carve a W/C US ridge which will produce a dip over the Mid-Atlantic US. This should allow for a period average to below-average 500mb heights for the weekend as a fairly-shallow upper-level trough swings through. Heights then rebound to average to above-average values next week but never really spike too high. The upper-level jet should actually be over the Mid-Atlantic US at this point which reinforces the idea of an unsettled mid-week. At the surface, we should be warm and muggy (not scorching hot but dank) through Friday (today) and into Saturday morning as a few rain/storm chances move through (details below). A cold front should then push through which will noticeably drop humidity for the second half of Saturday and all of Sunday while temperatures remain warm. Sunday into the early part of next week looks to remain warm and beautiful before unsettled humid conditions return for Tuesday-Thursday. With that said, it should in theory set up a nice next weekend. 

Tropics: You’ll certainly hear about tropical cyclone development this weekend/next week. As of now it looks like such is possible in the W Atlantic however impacts would likely be held to the N Caribbean and possibly Florida. I have very little confidence in anything coming up the east coast our way given upper-level steering currents and ocean surface temperatures (at least through mid-July…as far as I can confidently see). Again, worth monitoring for N Caribbean/SE US interests but otherwise, try to weed through the hype and speculation for any Mid-Atlantic US impacts. My gut right now says a fizzling system into the SE US and/or a re-curve out to sea well SE of NJ.

Friday (July 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should start cloudy, humid and rainy for AM hours but should improve through afternoon hours. An embedded rumble or two cannot be ruled out through the morning. Isolated/scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible through late-afternoon/evening hours but not nearly as widespread as during morning hours. Therefore, clearing is expected for many by early-to-late afternoon. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s away from the ocean and up in NNJ elevations while coastal regions hang in the lower-70s.

Saturday (July 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s statewide. Coastal regions might hang in the low-to-mid 80s. Skies could start cloudy and humid as the cold front might need most of the day to fully push through to the SE. Therefore we cannot rule out isolated showers and even a rogue thunderstorm. However, most of the state should see a drier day than Friday. Here’s to hoping the mention of rain and storms was for nothing. Eventually temperatures and humidity should drop through the afternoon and especially through the evening. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should drop into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the upper-50s. Such a night!

Sunday (July 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should top-out in the upper-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant…a 10! Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should again fall into the upper-50s for NNJ elevations and 60s for everyone else.

An early look at next week indicates continued beautiful conditions on Monday followed by unsettled and likely wet conditions Tuesday-Thursday. This should set up a dry and sunny weekend but let’s revisit this within a more confident range Thursday evening. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™