Unsettled Start Summery Finish (April 24-28)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 24, 2017 11:32

Unsettled Start Summery Finish (April 24-28)

This week looks to start cool, wet and breezy but end very mild. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: Ac closed-off upper-level low should slowly crawl up the east coast from ~Georgia to ~Cape Cod between now and early Thursday morning. Lower-level pressure underneath appears very disorganized and weak with a few hops, skips and transfers in the equation. This should bring unsettled conditions to the surface in the form of rain and onshore flow (cool. rainy and breezy) today through Wednesday PM. I’m also keeping an eye on tidal parameters as water levels could rise given the prolonged onshore flow. We also have a new moon on Wednesday which typically means higher astronomical tides before factoring in wind-driven surge and draining rainfall. Total rainfall for the first half of the week should be in the .75-1.25 inch range. The Tuesday PM high tide is the highest modeled period. Right now it looks like minor coastal flooding is possible during these next few days with a small chance of moderate criteria met. On Wednesday night the upper-level low should fall apart into a developing ridge of high pressure. This area of higher highs should back into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and provide much warmer conditions for Thursday into the weekend. I can’t say just yet which parts of the weekend look the driest because there does appear to be some unsettled uncertainty. But overall it does look warm with high temperatures easily capable of breaking 80 at least away from the ocean. Coasties will likely face cooler marine influence as sea surface temperatures are still in the lower-50s. 

Monday (April 24) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 60s away from the ocean. Coastal areas should be held in the 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Winds should be light out of the E away from the ocean. Coastal areas could see breezy, even gusty, conditions out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. Immediate coastal areas could hang around 50-52 (also current ocean temps).

Tuesday (April 25) high temperatures should only reach into the 50s for most. The SNJ coast might take a run at 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should see continued breezy-to-gusty onshore flow. Tuesday high tides could be problematic for areas that normally flood given the new moon, onshore flow and draining rainfall. Nothing historic but likely of nuisance. Overnight lows should stay in the 50s statewide as ocean temps and E winds continue to buffer the micro-climate.

Wednesday (April 26) high temperatures should easily reach into the 60s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a chance at breaking 70. Skies could still be gloomy for the first half of the day as the system’s remnants clear. The second half of the day could be sunny and quite nice. The post-rain spring feel/smell! Hopefully skies clear even earlier. The sooner the better! Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should should hang in the 50s again statewide.

Thursday (April 27) high temperatures should break 80 away from the ocean. NNJ and coastal regions could hang in the 70s. Skies should be at least partly sunny, possibly mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. The SNJ coast might hang around 60. What a night!

Friday (April 28) high temperatures have an even better shot at breaking 80 away from the ocean. NNJ has a better shot too. Once again, the immediate coast might hang in the 70s. Skies should start mostly sunny but clouds could increase heading into evening/overnight hours. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. The SNJ coast might hang around 60. What a night!

An early look at the weekend indicates near-summery conditions. Highs should easily push into the 80s for the usual interior CNJ/SNJ suspects. Even NNJ elevations and some coastal spots have a shot at breaking 80. Otherwise, most coastal areas should hang in the blissful mid-to-upper 70s. SHORE TRAFFIC ALERT!

I took the above photo in Ocean County earlier this year. Everyone have a wonderful week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 24, 2017 11:32

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