Warmer Conditions Expected (April 13-15)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 12, 2018 15:02

Warmer Conditions Expected (April 13-15)

Discussion: This weekend we have a low pressure system tracking through the central plains into the east lakes region (to our NW). We’re already inside the warm sector and will stay there until the cold front moves through on Monday. This sets up S/SW flow aloft throughout the entire warm sector period. For Friday and Saturday the surface flow should align with the southerly flow aloft and therefore these should be the two warmest days statewide. It gets interesting on Sunday when strong high pressure tracks through E Canada and tries to push the already-N warm front back down over parts of NJ as a Back Door Cold Front (BDCF). This would introduce onshore flow along and N of the BDCF which would quickly take temperatures down into the 40s (where current ocean temperatures are). This flow would be allowed to dam-up against the Appalachian Mountains. Coastal plain areas mainly S and SW of the BDCF would still roast in the undisturbed surface warm sector. There is still high uncertainty as to how far the BDCF advances between Saturday night and Sunday. I’ll check back in on Saturday morning with hopefully an improved confidence on Sunday’s BDCF extent. For now, SWNJ is most favored to stay warm/sunny while NENJ is most favored for colder, cloudier and even raw/wet marine influence. There should be a sharp division between paradise and NOOOOOOO!!! It is what it is. By Sunday night the BDCF should retreat back northward as the Canadian high relaxes. All of NJ should then be back in warm southerly flow. At some point on Monday the cold front should push through from the W, bringing heavy rainfall and possibly severe thunderstorms embedded within. We then should stay in the “slightly below average” temperature classification through most of the week. I’m seeing 70s for Wednesday and Thursday though so nothing too bad. Maybe only 60s for next weekend.

Friday (April 13) high temperatures should range in the 70s for most of New Jersey. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best shot at breaking 80. Immediate coastal regions have the best shot of hanging in the 60s due to marine influence (Ocean is still in the 40s). Those along the Delaware Bay coast in SNJ should experience the same effect. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above the mid-50s statewide.

Saturday (April 14) high temperatures and winds should behave very similar to Friday statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Overnight lows should fall colder however, ranging from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (April 15) high temperatures have a decent amount of bust potential based on how far S the Back Door Cold Front (BDCF) advances. That could still be anywhere between NNJ and SNJ (even S of SNJ). Along and to the N of this BDCF, high temperatures should only reach into the 40s/50s. To the S of this BDCF, high temperatures should behave more like Friday and Saturday. Winds should be breezy out of the E along and N of the BDCF but light out of the S/SW to the S of the BDCF. At some point overnight, temperatures should warm back up for everyone heading into Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates a wet and stormy start with slightly-below average temperatures heading into and through the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday could reach into the 70s but nights will likely still seem cooler than desired. Right now next weekend looks mostly dry and sunny with highs in the 60s. It’s reasonable to assume a frontal passage towards the end of the weekend that could produce rain and possibly thunderstorms. Let’s take a look at everything, especially this Monday’s thunderstorm potential, in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

For comprehensive and interactive hyper-local analysis that goes way above and beyond the detail of this public forecast, check out our premium services which include early hyper-local text notifications and guaranteed individual forum interaction. A must for outdoor businesses that depend on the best real-time data possible.

Comments

comments

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 12, 2018 15:02

Current Weather in NJ

giweather wordpress widget