Week Starts Nice. Ends Wet (June 29-July 3)
The first part of the week should be nice with weak high pressure in control. Then at some point on Wednesday, a series of weak low pressure disturbances should begin taking fire at New Jersey from the west. This would keep Wednesday through Friday, and maybe even Saturday wet followed by gorgeous conditions to close out the holiday weekend. Let’s break it down:
Monday high temperatures should range from mid-70s to lower-80s. Expect mostly sunny skies with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the lower 60s for most of New Jersey (upper-50s for NNJ elevations).
Tuesday should reach the lower-80s statewide. Most of the day should be nice and only partly cloudy. With humidity returning however, afternoon-evening thunderstorms are possible of an isolated and random nature (hit or miss). Winds should be light-to-moderate out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should only fall into the 60s statewide as isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible into early Wednesday AM hours.
Wednesday should reach the low-to-mid 80s for high temperatures. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds to start with more isolated showers and storms possible throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most of New Jersey (upper-50s for NNJ elevations).
Thursday should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for high temperatures. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the day. Model guidance currently suggests a rainy overnight into Friday AM. Winds should be very calm aside from a few 5-10 mph gusts in any direction as weak low pressure moves through. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s with rain favoring coastal areas over interior/upper elevations.
Friday should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for high temperatures (maybe 80 away from the coast). Expect mostly cloudy skies with rain and wind as coastal low pressure influences the region. Winds should be light-to-moderate out of the E which would be felt more along the coast. NWNJ would have the best chance of sunny breaks in the clouds. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
An early look at the weekend indicates split model guidance. Eventually high pressure will move in and bring beautiful conditions to all of New Jersey. The GFS has this happening in time for Saturday and Sunday while the European only has this for Sunday with rain lingering into Saturday. We’re talking sunny and dry 80s once it all clears out. I’ll have the full holiday weekend outlook posted Wednesday PM.
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I took the above image from Surf City park last Tuesday, right after the damaging winds blew through. Be safe and have a great week! JC