Wet Start Beautiful Finish (June 23-25)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 22, 2017 21:33

Wet Start Beautiful Finish (June 23-25)

Most of the weekend looks good aside from Cindy’s remnants. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The entire weekend forecast revolves around Cindy’s remnants which will be absorbed into an approaching upper-level longwave trough and pushed through the east coast between now and Saturday morning/afternoon. By the time such remnants pass over New Jersey they will be quite weak. Rainfall could still be decent (up to 2 inches maybe) Friday into Saturday. There will not be sustained higher winds to worry about (like what the N gulf states just saw). Just your run-of-mill breeze/gusts that accompany moderate-to-heavy rainfall. The models are split on when the rain stops on Saturday. Taking everything into consideration, including live observations, I’m leaning towards a late-morning rain stop. We have to however allow until afternoon hours for rain to end given the spread of uncertainty. But from that point and forward through Sunday, the weather looks pretty good. The longwave trough should then swing through with a positive access. This would in theory shear out any rain systems to the east (like when a snow storm becomes a southern slider). While no major rain systems or frontal passages are expected, I’d allow a chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms through Thursday given the lower 500mb heights. A sea breeze front could do it. By next weekend another ridge is modeled to strengthen over the Mid-Atlantic US which would mean the return of hot and humid conditions. Let’s see if this profile holds on model guidance through the weekend. 

Friday (June 23) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best chance at flirting with 90. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with rain and thunderstorms possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below 70 statewide as unsettled conditions continue into Saturday morning.

Saturday (June 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should start rainy/stormy and humid in the morning but eventually clear/dry out. The best case scenario is clearing by late morning. The worst case scenario is clearing by late afternoon. But from the point of clearing, conditions should rapidly improve for the rest of the day. Total expected system rainfall (Fri-Sat) is between .75″ and 1.75″. Here’s to hoping it clears earlier than later but the uncertainty and timing spread must be stated. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most and possibly even the 50s for NNJ elevations with a less humid feel.

Sunday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a drier feel. Should be a summer 10 day! Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. SNJ/SENJ could hang in the lower-60s.

An early look at next week indicates run-of-mill conditions for early summer. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s with high pressure in control. No major rain systems or frontal passages are showing however pop-up showers and thunderstorms are always possible this time of year, especially towards afternoon/evening hours. Otherwise a pretty good looking week. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday night. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 22, 2017 21:33

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