Wet Start to the Week (Sept 17-21)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 16, 2018 18:30

Wet Start to the Week (Sept 17-21)

Discussion: Florence has been nearly stationary under the ridge all weekend with no escape path until now. Finally the jet stream will pick up Florence’s remnants and take them over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US between Monday and Tuesday. For New Jersey that likely means rainfall amounts in the .25-.75” range with some local areas exceeding an inch. NWNJ is favored over SENJ for rainfall amounts but the entire state is subject to it. Winds should not be bad since the cyclonic nature of Florence’s remnants will be mostly removed. Just your normal rainstorm breeze/gusts. After that we should see a nice Wednesday-Thursday on the back-side northerly flow behind the departing Florence remnant low. Friday should be a bit warmer as a quick moving high kicks in some return flow. The weekend then looks cooler and drier as high pressure to our N brings down some more northerly flow. That should fit right in with the first few days of fall. There are no coastal flooding threats this week, not even with the Monday-Tuesday synoptic rain storm.

Monday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible, especially during PM hours. NWNJ seems a bit more favored for rain than SENJ. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE, lighter inland and breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Tuesday (Sept 18) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Periods of rain are likely statewide. NNJ to favored over SNJ for rainfall amounts. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Wednesday (Sept 19) high temperatures should reach the lower-80s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a slightly humid feel. Winds should be light out of the N. By overnight hours temperatures should fall into the 50s/60s statewide with reduced humidity.

Thursday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. Skies should be partly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates a transitional period with highs struggling to escape the lower-70s. At least parts of the state could see some rainfall but overnight lows in the 40s and 50s could remind us that summer is indeed over. Let’s take a look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 16, 2018 18:30

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