Wintry Start to the Week (Jan 8-12)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 7, 2018 19:05

Wintry Start to the Week (Jan 8-12)

snowmap1-7-2018

Please click here for full resolution snow map!

Discussion: The upper-levels indicate a back-and-forth pattern emerging as 500mb height anomalies bounce from positive to negative extremes. This is typical of the current La Nina state. Therefore we should moderate this week heading into the weekend followed by a colder next week followed by another thaw period in the January 19-25 period and likely back to cold after that (run-on sentence acknowledged). Exact dates of transition are hard to pin down but the general see-saw idea should play out. In the immediate time period, we have a short burst of moderate precipitation expected tomorrow night as a warm front pushes up into NJ. The above map represents our expected wintry impact.

In English: A light wintry event is likely tomorrow night. It’s not a big deal but should occur from PM rush hour through most of the evening. I recommend allowing a little extra time for travel, especially areas in the snow and ice zone of the map.

Monday (Jan 8) high temperatures should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with snow, ice and rain possible (see wintry impact map above). NNJ is most favored for snow. SNJ is most favored for rain. CNJ is looking like an icy/mix between. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW, a little breezier for SNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Jan 9) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens/20s statewide.

Wednesday (Jan 10) high temperatures should range from 35-40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Jan 11) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should only fall a few degrees lower than high temperatures so low-to-mid 40s statewide.

Friday (Jan 12) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most, perhaps upper-20s for NNJ and lower-40s for extreme SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates warm and rainy conditions spilling into Saturday. Sunday and beyond (into next week) indicates the return back to below-average temperatures but not as cold as it’s been.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 7, 2018 19:05

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