Discussion: The upper-jet is expected to dip to the S of NJ once the Tuesday system is through. There it will stay until well into December. Height, analyzed at 500mb, suggests a period of troughing beginning this weekend that should
Discussion: Last night into this morning was a solid kick-off for snow season. I know that only NWNJ elevations (especially Sparta through Vernon) saw snow accumulations with the majority of NJ (lower 2/3) just seeing rain with a few flurries/snow
Discussion: The initial rainfall portion of this system fell between last night and this morning. The occluded front was enough to spark some lightning along a linear stormfront before the precipitation flattened out to a broader slug of rain. It
Discussion: First, let’s level some expectations. The snow potential for tomorrow (Thursday) into Friday is not a big deal. Given the time of year and surface temperature profile, it will be hard for significant accumulations to stack up outside of
Discussion: I’m not deducing much looking at upper-jet (250mb) winds. Slight deviations in either direction but no buckling. 500mb geopotential height anomalies paint a much better picture. I can see the existing ridge eroding by Wednesday to make way for
Discussion: This past Sunday, I began discussing a synoptic storm signal for premium Kaboom Club members. Now that it’s gaining traction, we can discuss it a little more in-detail. Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first which
Discussion: The upper jet will dip and flatten out into more of a zonal flow this weekend. Geopotential heights, analyzed at 500mb, will correlate with this with a reduction in positive anomalies to near-average. Far from a deep cold trough
Discussion: This week’s weather will continue to fall victim to a persistent ridging pattern. The current ridge is starting to depart which will put NJ under a warmer SW flow for Tues-Wed. On Thursday, the current ridge will handoff to
Discussion: The drought continues to worsen. We’ve had no synoptic rain systems (tropical remnants, nor’easter, coastal low, etc.) and almost every frontal passage (warm or cold) has been mostly dry through NJ. The cold front moving through today (Friday) started
Discussion: The rainfall situation remains dire. The front-side of high pressure gave many locations their first freeze overnight (Sunday night into Monday morning). NJ conditions will now moderate to above-average temperatures as the high sits overhead today (Monday) and moves
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