Discussion: The image above illustrates my best approximation of the warm front (red), cold front (blue) and today’s main cluster of thunderstorms (black). The warm front is almost through NJ (moving SW to NE). It just sparked a cell for
Discussion: Before we continue, I want to say that life-threatening/damaging winds from severe weather (straight-line or tornado) are a bad thing. I take my discussions very seriously when including such in my forecast, even if just a small, isolated threat
Discussion: I want to touch on yesterday (Thursday) before looking at tomorrow. As someone who spent almost 40 years of my life growing up in the Manahawkin area, I can only remember a few times where that much water fell
Discussion: Many NJ locations broke 90, if not are in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies are hazy from the upstream wildfires and that should peak in-intensity tonight (Thursday) into tomorrow (Friday). The same type of linear segment of downpours/thunderstorms that happened
Discussion: A ridge will set up over the N Plains/N/S Dakota area this week. This will position upper flow over the Great Lakes and towards NJ and much of the N Mid-Atlantic US/New England. This pattern should stay locked until
Discussion: The upper levels are indicating changes in the future pattern. While the overall pattern keeps the jet stream N of NJ (inducing ridges), I am seeing a few periods where the jet stream wants to dip to near or
Discussion: The weak low that was over the Mid-Atlantic US and contributed heavily to yesterday’s flash flooding/heavy consistent rainfall, is now offshore just S of Cape Cod. This is now producing northerly flow behind it (to the W of it
Discussion: Temperatures exceeded 100 today (Thursday) in many locations. I doubt many NJ spots will dip below the 75-80 range overnight tonight (Thursday night). Isolated thunderstorms can pop up at any time but so far quiet. The death ridge/ring of
Discussion: When the sun sets like that, you know it will be hot the next day. And that’s what I expect some of the sunsets to look like this week. Between now and this weekend, the upper jet is going
Discussion: The upper-level zonal flow pattern this weekend is going to evolve into what we call a summer death ridge for next week. This means the upper jet will buckle northwards well to the N of NJ and leave NJ
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