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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Strong Thunderstorms Possible

Strong Thunderstorms Possible

🕔16:10, 18.Jun 2025

Discussion: We’re now in a warm sector. The warm front is through and winds are changing to more of a SW direction with increasing temperatures and humidity. A round or two of showers and thunderstorms are possible today (Wednesday) and

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Summer Conditions Return

Summer Conditions Return

🕔16:25, 16.Jun 2025

Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay N of NJ for most of the foreseeable future outside of a small dip this Thursday-Friday. That jives with 500mb heights analysis of the bottom of an expected trough grazing through NJ

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Another Weekend with Rain

Another Weekend with Rain

🕔15:36, 13.Jun 2025

Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ for the next week or so. This will keep NJ under slightly higher geopotential heights, observed at 500mb, for the same period—producing warmer conditions at the surface.

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Unsettled Conditions Continue

Unsettled Conditions Continue

🕔16:25, 9.Jun 2025

Discussion: The upper jet should be over of just N of NJ this week. That jives with the expected average profile of geopotential height anomalies of the near-zonal flow pattern. There will be an upper-low/trough lifting into SE Canada Tues-Wed

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Warm and Unsettled

Warm and Unsettled

🕔16:24, 5.Jun 2025

Discussion: Not too many changes in the evolution of this weekend’s forecast. We still have a slow-moving linear area of convergence that should push across NJ from NW to SE and meet up with a weak coastal disturbance. Not much

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Weekly Outlook – Summery Week. Rainy/Stormy End

Weekly Outlook – Summery Week. Rainy/Stormy End

🕔16:16, 2.Jun 2025

Discussion: The trough that dominated the weekend is moving out but the back-side of it is still around for today (Monday). 250mb wind and 500mb geopotential height analysis is concurrent in suggesting a ridge building behind the trough for much

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More Rain

More Rain

🕔14:05, 27.May 2025

Discussion: We’ve had a nice little break between the lower geopotential heights with current weak ridging. This allowed for an immaculate Saturday night through today (Tuesday). Another area of lower heights will start moving in late tonight. A few pieces

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Improvement

Improvement

🕔13:45, 23.May 2025

Discussion: A rather zonal look at 250mb wind analysis regarding the upper jet. 500mb heights suggests an upper-low dominating this weekend but gradually giving way to nicer conditions with an approaching ridge for next week. That’s what will get us

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Cool, Rainy and Foggy

Cool, Rainy and Foggy

🕔23:17, 19.May 2025

Discussion: Real quick, the winds have subsided, and we’ll drop to a range of 40-50 across NJ tonight/overnight (Monday night) with low humidity. Tuesday should be the last pleasant day with nice conditions for a while. A series of lower

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Lottery Storms

Lottery Storms

🕔16:37, 16.May 2025

Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, is streaking across the Midwest US and splitting N and S over the Mid-Atlantic US. This is creating some divergence aloft to help power thunderstorms at the muggy surface. At 500mb I’m seeing

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