Back to homepage

Posts From Jonathan Carr

Not Bad (April 23-25)

Not Bad (April 23-25)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:16, 22.Apr 2021

Discussion: The positive axis trough pattern is about to end for the E US. It’s been relentlessly holding us slightly below average in temperature and in some cases (like last night/today) well below average. The 250mb jet should make its

Read Full Article
April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching

April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:59, 20.Apr 2021

Discussion: We’ve had a nice run of non-disruptive weather conditions. Tomorrow (Wednesday) that will likely come to an end with a stormy frontal passage. Low pressure will track through PA into New England (just to the NW of NJ) on

Read Full Article
Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔00:06, 19.Apr 2021

Discussion: The upper level pattern of repeating positive-axis troughs, swinging from central Canada through the E US, will continue this week. Tuesday looks like the mildest day of the week from SW flow culmination ahead of the cold front. Wednesday

Read Full Article
Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:40, 16.Apr 2021

Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should continue to dominate the pattern with trough after trough swinging down and in from central Canada through the US. Because the troughs feature a positive axis, nothing big can really spin up. It does however

Read Full Article
Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:36, 11.Apr 2021

Discussion: The upper levels this week have a very unsettled look. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should alternate between near-average to below-average. This means a lower general atmosphere (cooler aloft) which allows milder rising air and moisture (from higher-angle diurnal surface

Read Full Article
Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:29, 4.Apr 2021

Discussion: Not a lot going on this week. Monday through Thursday fall under the front side of a ridge. This should allow most locations to near-70 during the day and stay above 40 at night. Friday then looks a little

Read Full Article
Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

Jonathan Carr 🕔00:30, 2.Apr 2021

Discussion: High pressure to our W (over S IL/W KY) is currently producing cold NE quadrant anti-cyclonic flow over NJ. This is tapping colder Canadian air mass and giving us some wind to make it feel even colder in the

Read Full Article
A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:23, 28.Mar 2021

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very wavy and meridional over the next week or so. The lows are obviously not dipping as far S anymore as our p-types have been mostly rain and driven by cold frontal passages to the S

Read Full Article
Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:01, 26.Mar 2021

Discussion: Most of our pattern, this weekend into next week, will be heavily influenced by a few low pressure systems passing to our far NW. There’s one right now dragging a mostly-dry cold front through. Today, we’re experiencing the warm

Read Full Article
Spring is Here (March 22-26)

Spring is Here (March 22-26)

Jonathan Carr 🕔00:54, 22.Mar 2021

Discussion: Nothing serious or hazardous expected for this week. The most noteworthy mention IMO are the sustained milder temperatures. Most of NJ should have no problem reaching 60 this week almost every day and in some cases 70 away from

Read Full Article