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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Jan 25: Light Wintry Event Approaching

Jan 25: Light Wintry Event Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:21, 25.Jan 2021

Discussion: Precipitation just ahead of a warm front (currently over KY/WV/VA) is moving in from our SW. It should first move into SWNJ anytime after sundown tonight as snow and then try to spread into SENJ and maybe even CNJ

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Jan 24: Snow Update

Jan 24: Snow Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:59, 24.Jan 2021

Discussion: This map and discussion might seem unnecessary for a minor snow event. But there will be multiple forms of wintry precipitation capable of impacting travel and safety this Monday night through most of Tuesday. With that said, let’s focus

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Jan 23: Tracking Two Wintry Systems

Jan 23: Tracking Two Wintry Systems

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:11, 23.Jan 2021

Discussion: We currently have high pressure (anti-cyclonic flow) to our W and low pressure (cyclonic flow) to our E. This is producing a tight N to S pressure gradient (strong N/NW flow) and tapping Arctic air mass over Canada. For

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Jan 22: Winter Storm Detected

Jan 22: Winter Storm Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:27, 22.Jan 2021

Discussion: A shot of Arctic air will move in from the NW starting tonight and will linger until Sunday. This should keep most, if not all, of NJ below freezing during this period. NNJ elevations and maybe Pine Barrens down

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Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:53, 17.Jan 2021

Discussion: Tonight should start a prolonged colder pattern for NJ. Nothing record breaking, just colder. It should already feel colder today than the warm sector air mass we saw earlier this weekend. This week should behave like a V graph

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Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:18, 14.Jan 2021

Discussion: The most important feature of our current forecast is the disrupted Pacific jet plowing into the W US. We’re going to see a -EPO/-PNA setup start to take shape. This will allow ridging to occur near Alaska and extreme

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Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:53, 11.Jan 2021

Discussion: The Tuesday-Wednesday storm signal has vanished to the S just like the signal last Friday. Strong consensus in the 5-8 day range. Fell apart at 5 day and in mark. Seems to be the theme which indicates the models

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Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

Jonathan Carr 🕔01:01, 9.Jan 2021

Discussion: So that everyone is on the same page, an extremely favorable pattern supportive of winter storm development can come and go without any snowstorms actually hitting NJ. These lyrics probably belong in an Alanis Morissette song or something, but

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Jan 7: Snow Signal Update

Jan 7: Snow Signal Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:23, 7.Jan 2021

Discussion: This morning’s 6Z NAM run was about as close as the Jan 8-9 (tomorrow-Saturday) storm signal has been modeled over the past few days (see below image). The more recent 12Z model suite has re-affirmed a miss to the

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Jan 5: Tracking Wintry Storm Signals

Jan 5: Tracking Wintry Storm Signals

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:57, 5.Jan 2021

Discussion: We have two immediate synoptic signals to track. One is for this Friday-Saturday (Jan 8-9) and the other is for next Tuesday (Jan 12). There’s another Jan 15 but let’s deal with the first two that are now inside

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