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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)

Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:19, 19.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this week with positive 500mb geopotential anomalies in place through the weekend. This should keep conditions dry with above average temperatures through at least Saturday. Thursday looks like the

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Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)

Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:18, 15.Oct 2020

Discussion: An upper-level trough will swing through the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this weekend. On Friday there should be enough divergence aloft correlating with an area of positive vorticity advection to power a weak coastal low at the surface. This

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Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔18:03, 11.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper levels appear very zonal for this week. Once the rainy remnants of Delta clear out by Tuesday afternoon (Sunday night through Tuesday morning are wet and breezy), Wednesday and Thursday look seasonably mild and rather uneventful. On

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Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)

Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:37, 8.Oct 2020

Discussion: It looks like tonight will be another cold one as high pressure remains to our immediate W—delivering N/NW anti-cyclonic flow into the coldest part of the overnight (Friday AM). The high should move offshore by Saturday, reversing the flow

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Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:11, 4.Oct 2020

Discussion: A weak and transient ridge should build over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US between Monday and Wednesday. This should produce milder temperatures at the surface with light SW winds. A cold front is then expected to pass through later

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Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:49, 2.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper pattern looks very meridional in foreseeable model guidance. While nothing specific is currently showing, I’d be surprised if a synoptic scale system didn’t materialize for the Mid-Atlantic US, whether just a baby coastal low or stronger nor’easter.

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Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:45, 2.Oct 2020

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of October 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex

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Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)

Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:28, 27.Sep 2020

Discussion: For the next few days we’ll be stuck in a warm sector formed by high pressure out in the Atlantic and the approaching trough. The high will kick in warm and humid return flow. The front of the trough

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One Last Time (Sept 26-27)

One Last Time (Sept 26-27)

Jonathan Carr 🕔00:49, 25.Sep 2020

Discussion: For this weekend there’s not much to speak of other than a weakening upper-level disturbance floating through the return flow of departing high pressure. For these reasons, Saturday and Sunday could feature some very isolated rain showers but not

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Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:31, 20.Sep 2020

Discussion: High pressure, in general, will continue to dominate the Mid-Atlantic US weather pattern this week. This means dry sinking air region-wide and ultimately pleasant and sunny at the surface. As high pressure drifts around the E US we’ll see

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