Discussion: An area of high pressure has had control of the region for a few days now. It has provided cool, dry and sinking air mass which meant comfortable and sunny conditions.
High pressure will now move offshore as low pressure tracks through the E Great Lakes. This flow combination should hoist a warm front northward along the Mid-Atlantic US on Thursday before the low-attached cold front pushes through from W to E by early Friday AM.
Only the warm front looks wet however. Therefore rain, possibly with embedded thunderstorms, should approach the Cape May area any time after midnight tonight. Rain should then spread northward into most of NJ by sunrise Thursday morning. Rainfall, with any embedded thunderstorms, should then end, also from S to N, between Thursday late-morning and early-afternoon for all NJ locations. You should expect onshore flow to persist from now through tomorrow especially when the weak low passes close to NJ (from S/SW to N/NE).
From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening most of NJ will be warm-sectored with higher humidity and generally warm/sticky conditions. Only the NNJ elevations might escape the humidity. A mostly-dry cold front should then push through between Thursday evening and Friday morning to set up great beautiful weekend conditions. Friday and Saturday look clear and sunny. Sunday looks good for daylight hours but we might see rain move in from the NW closer to midnight. Temperatures and humidity should gradually rise through the weekend with Friday-Saturday the driest feeling and Sunday the muggiest.
In English: Expect a rainy, possibly stormy, Thursday AM for most NJ areas. Rain starts after midnight tonight and clears by late-morning/early-afternoon tomorrow—producing wet AM rush hour conditions. Winds should be stronger off the ocean for the immediate coast vs. for those inland and away from the ocean. The rest of tomorrow looks humid/sticky for most (except maybe NNJ elevations) but Friday and into the weekend looks pretty good with the next shot of rain likely Sunday night into Monday. Have a great rest of your Wednesday night and be careful with the Thursday morning rain/fog/storms/etc. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™