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Nov 30: Tornado Watch Discussion

Nov 30: Tornado Watch Discussion

Jonathan Carr 🕔13:36, 30.Nov 2020

Discussion: The heaviest precipitation slug has passed through New Jersey from S/SW to N/NE. Some of those downpours were intense. I know because I was in one. Remaining precipitation today will be of an isolated-to-scattered nature, no longer widespread. We

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Nov 29: Rain and Wind Approaching

Nov 29: Rain and Wind Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔21:39, 29.Nov 2020

Discussion: Two upper level disturbances, from separate N and S jet streams, are combining into a single energy vort to our W in the central US. I still see this as a pattern changer. The first of many surface lows

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Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:09, 29.Nov 2020

Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10).

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Cooler Conditions (Nov 27-29)

Cooler Conditions (Nov 27-29)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:53, 27.Nov 2020

Discussion: Nothing crazy expected for this weekend. A weak area of high pressure will float through under slightly negative height anomalies. After a very mild Thanksgiving Day and Friday, this will produce a colder Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks colder

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Nov 25: Wild Dynamics Detected

Nov 25: Wild Dynamics Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:19, 25.Nov 2020

Discussion: Some pretty wild atmospheric dynamics are showing up on model guidance for next week as we leave November and enter meteorological winter. Let’s talk a little about the teleconnection oscillations first, specifically the three which impact the E US

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Mixed Conditions (Nov 23-27)

Mixed Conditions (Nov 23-27)

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:56, 23.Nov 2020

Discussion: A meridional but progressive upper jet pattern is expected this week. Height anomalies indicate back-and-forth positive and negative as thin and quick moving troughs and ridges try to establish with a cut-off upper level low or two. At the

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Mild Conditions (Nov 20-22)

Mild Conditions (Nov 20-22)

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:35, 20.Nov 2020

Discussion: A zonal upper jet and positive geopotential height anomalies should dominate the weekend. At the surface that means mild temperatures without disturbance. Friday and Saturday looks the mildest as flow starts out of the S/SW and rocks to W/NW.

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Nov 17: Cold Temperatures Approaching

Nov 17: Cold Temperatures Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:50, 17.Nov 2020

Discussion: Sunday night’s cold front was on the front of the trough that we (and most of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US) are now underneath. This means low geopotential heights and a condensed cooler lower atmosphere. Today, an upper level disturbance moved

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Colder Conditions (Nov 16-20)

Colder Conditions (Nov 16-20)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:30, 15.Nov 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will be dipping S of NJ from tonight through about Thursday morning. This will allow below average 500mb geopotential height anomalies to build over NJ in said period. At the surface this means a much colder

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Nov 15: Windy Conditions

Nov 15: Windy Conditions

Jonathan Carr 🕔13:29, 15.Nov 2020

Discussion: When I was younger, before I studied the science of meteorology, I would falsely associate prolonged wind events in the months of spring and fall. I thought these events, for said periods, were the seasons blowing in and out.

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