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Cold Start. Mild Finish (Feb 20-23)

Cold Start. Mild Finish (Feb 20-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:22, 19.Feb 2020

Discussion: Another very positive-tilted upper-level trough will swing through over the next few days before giving way back to above-average geopotential heights Saturday into the first half of next week. That should put NJ inside the trough tonight through tomorrow

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Colder Conditions Moderate (Feb 14-16)

Colder Conditions Moderate (Feb 14-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔08:42, 14.Feb 2020

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough is currently swinging through the region and should give way to the front side of a ridge with upper-level NW flow. This is responsible for bringing the colder conditions that started last night (Thursday)

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Unsettled Start Cold Finish (Feb 10-14)

Unsettled Start Cold Finish (Feb 10-14)

Jonathan Carr 🕔20:58, 9.Feb 2020

Discussion: Real quick, some precipitation is moving through tonight. Extreme NNJ could see some wintry precipitation type from this. It should move out by tomorrow morning. E US ridging and a Bermuda high should keep temperatures above average through Wednesday.

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Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Jonathan Carr 🕔18:00, 6.Feb 2020

Discussion: The next and more significant precipitation slug moves through between tonight and about 6am tomorrow morning. SENJ should receive more rainfall than NWNJ but everyone’s on the hook for widespread periods of moderate, sometimes heavy, rain overnight tonight. Precipitation

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Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:18, 5.Feb 2020

Discussion: It’s been a somewhat colder day than the past few. The boundary has been pulled southward over NNJ from the back-side cyclonic flow of the weak wave that just departed. NNJ is already down into the 30s and some

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Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:04, 4.Feb 2020

Discussion: There’s no need to cover the overall global polar and Pacific patterns that are producing an unfavorable environment for winter storm development. Now it’s all about the thread-the-needle wintry events that can still occur in an unfavorable winter pattern.

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February 2020 Outlook

February 2020 Outlook

Jonathan Carr 🕔12:07, 4.Feb 2020

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of February 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex

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Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:40, 3.Feb 2020

Discussion: While the overall Polar and Pacific weather patterns, including key teleconnections and oscillations, remain generally unfavorable for winter weather in New Jersey, we do have a few thread the needle events to watch this week. We’re basically going to

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Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:55, 2.Feb 2020

Discussion: In the upper-levels, anomalous ridging should dominate the pattern for the next 10 days. In some cases the ridging retrogrades W enough to pull some troughing down from SE Canada over our area. At the surface this means a

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Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:36, 30.Jan 2020

Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong

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