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Clear but Cold (March 5-7)

Clear but Cold (March 5-7)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:23, 4.Mar 2021

Discussion: The backside of a trough over the NE US will feed our area with colder NW flow at the upper levels from now (Thursday) through most of the weekend until a narrow positive-axis trough swings through between Sunday and

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Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)

Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:08, 28.Feb 2021

Discussion: We should stay cold and rainy tonight into tomorrow morning as our weak but prolonged disturbance moves through. Tomorrow (Monday) winds should pick up out of the W/NW after late-AM clearing and persist into some of Tuesday. Peak wind

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Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:20, 26.Feb 2021

Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take

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Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:20, 21.Feb 2021

Discussion: Tonight should be another cold one. Nothing crazy record breaking but lows dropping below freezing statewide (into 20s for much of NJ). The high pressure, that drove down the decaying Arctic air mass over NJ this weekend, will pass

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Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:56, 19.Feb 2021

Discussion: It just occurred to me that I haven’t released a fixed weekly product (Mon-Fri Outlook or Weekend Outlook) since late-January. February’s weather, so far, warranted daily wintry storm articles for the incredibly active winter pattern we’ve been in since

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Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:30, 17.Feb 2021

Discussion: The approaching winter storm is anything but a “start and end as snow” event. It’s an ugly mess of precipitation types including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain falling on a volatile surface line of freezing. The low

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Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching

Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:30, 16.Feb 2021

Discussion: The trend on most data over the last 24 hours has been for a colder solution Thursday-Friday. More like the solution I was thinking yesterday (what the GFS/Euro was advertising). The reason for the data changing is that the

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Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update

Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:46, 15.Feb 2021

Discussion: Precipitation so far today has been very isolated and drizzly with most areas still dry as of now. Ultra-short-range model guidance and live obs indicate similar conditions holding until about 11PM tonight. From 11PM into Tuesday morning, precipitation should

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Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching

Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching Updated

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:30, 14.Feb 2021

Discussion: Another ice storm is approaching and this one looks more potent. Where the recent one hit mostly 95 and SE, this one is targeting 95 and NW. There’s not much to say. The atmosphere is warm over New Jersey

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Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching

Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:25, 12.Feb 2021

Discussion: A very strung-out wave of energy, focused on a weak and unorganized area of low pressure, will impact NJ with precipitation between Saturday morning and noon on Sunday. The weak low will eject into the Atlantic Ocean near OBX

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