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Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:27, 16.Dec 2020

Discussion: Some radar returns are starting to show up to the SW of NJ which means precipitation, whether wintry or rain, should begin falling by early afternoon today. This is going to be the last predictive forecast article for this

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Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:28, 15.Dec 2020

Discussion: As I said before, this system is going to break a lot of snow lover hearts in SNJ (I’m one of them) while delivering a crippling winter blow to NNJ. A NNJ KABOOM. The trends in model guidance that

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Dec 14: Winter Storm Developing

Dec 14: Winter Storm Developing

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:26, 14.Dec 2020

Discussion: Today’s weaker event is now ending and we can focus exclusively on the higher-impacts of the Wednesday-Thursday system. Not much has changed in the model guidance. We have a surface low tracking in over the coastal Carolinas and wanting

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Dec 13: Winter Storm a GO

Dec 13: Winter Storm a GO

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:36, 13.Dec 2020

Discussion: Just to recap a little, we’re in a -AO/-NAO/neutral PNA teleconnection pattern. The PV is moving into central-east Canada. The jet is behaving in more of a meridional manner over the US and therefore shortwave disturbances are being moved

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Dec 12: Snow Event(s) Detected

Dec 12: Snow Event(s) Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:29, 12.Dec 2020

Discussion: This discussion is for two separate disturbances expected to occur this coming week. The first is on Monday (Dec 14) and the second Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 16-17). For the first event on Monday, we have a trough anchored

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Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

Mild Conditions (Dec 11-13). But then…

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:42, 11.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will make several meridional fluctuations over the next few weeks over NJ. This should allow a few low pressure systems to pass just to the SE of NJ from W to E—putting parts of NJ on

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Dec 10: Winter is Coming

Dec 10: Winter is Coming

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:56, 10.Dec 2020

Discussion: I wanted to provide a longer-range outlook today after seeing a few things. The modeled teleconnections, on the Euro Ensembles, are indicating a much stronger -AO/-NAO pattern setting in. The values take a noticeable dive in the Dec 15-18

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Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

Dec 8: Light Snow for NWNJ

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:10, 8.Dec 2020

Discussion: We’re now under the NW flow that occurs in the upper levels on the back of a trough. A very weak upper-level disturbance, and associated surface low in Canada, is going to send a piece of the energy from

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Cold and Dry (Dec 7-11)

Cold and Dry (Dec 7-11)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:46, 6.Dec 2020

Discussion: Much of the state will drop below freezing tonight (Sunday night). The early weekend storm system for NJ went on to bring snow in parts of New England as a decent mid-latitude cyclone. The backside cyclonic flow of that

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Cold Conditions (Dec 4-6)

Cold Conditions (Dec 4-6)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:59, 4.Dec 2020

Discussion: Model guidance indicates a very meridional jet pattern over the next few weeks with ample below-average geopotential height anomalies. At the surface this means colder temperatures and an active pattern. Whether or not one of these systems times with

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