Discussion: The upper jet is somewhat inconclusive IMO but 500mb height anomalies tell the story better. For the next 10-14 days, we’re going to see lower heights over the E US in a series of colder/unsettled troughs. This should keep the surface below average in temperature and rainier. This pattern will be supported by W US ridging upstream. Before getting into the rain, let’s talk about temperature. Average high temperatures for this time of year are upper-60s. We’re instead going to see lower-60s. Average lows are mid-to-upper 40s. We’re instead going to see upper-30s/lower-40s. Not THAT much colder but a 5-6 degree anomaly will register bright blue on some of the maps you might see from NWS and/or weather news. 62-63 still feels like a great spring day, especially in the sun. So IMO the temps aren’t that big of a deal. With our global pattern heading into an El Nino, this summer could be quite hot. With that said, I am okay with some cooler spring days. But now let’s talk rain. It looks like a weak and unorganized coastal disturbance will start our unsettled pattern Thursday into Friday and then keep us wet on-and-off through the weekend. Basically, the weak coastal moves through (Thursday/Friday) then hands back to a lake cutting low (Sunday-Monday), which then reforms and retrogrades back towards a weak coastal storm pattern to end (by May 5th). A very unsettled pattern from this coming Friday (April 28) to next Friday (May 5). We should then return to at least an average pattern (temps near-70 or greater) to push into the first weekend of May. I understand there is going to me some moaning and groaning about the next 10-14 days being colder and wetter. Unfortunately, there’s not much we can do except to let it wash over us.
Monday (April 24) high temperatures should push into the mid-to-upper 50s, maybe a few spots just break 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts with a few showers around mainly for NNJ/NWNJ. Any overnight frost potential should remain away from the ocean.
Tuesday (April 25) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a few passing showers. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s again from elevations to coasts with frost potential away from the ocean.
Wednesday (April 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with more rain possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 from elevations to coasts. Clouds and showers should linger into Thursday.
Thursday (April 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should start cloudy with some rain showers around but improve through late-morning/afternoon. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
Friday (April 28) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E, breeziest along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures reaching near-60 with clouds and on-and-off rain. A very unsettled look from this range. The cooler/wetter pattern should extend through this weekend into next week and come to an end around May 5/6. I sympathize with the moaning and groaning. We’d all like to see 70s and sun this time of year rather than near-60 and damp/raw. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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