Discussion: Monday looks like a day of transition as the colder air mass departs to our NE. N/NW flow will slowly give way to W/NW and ultimately W/SW flow by early Tuesday. This will allow warmer air from the SE US to pump in from the SW for a mild stretch of weather Tuesday through Friday. Not everyone is guaranteed to crack 60 though at first. Tuesday through Thursday should feature varying winds out of the S. Depending on where you are on the immediate SNJ coast (along Delaware Bay or Atlantic Ocean), you will likely be capped in the 50s if the flow is onshore for you. The Delaware Bay and ocean are still very cold (in the 40s). So SW flow chills down Cape May County and some of Cumberland (Tuesday). S/SE flow chills down ECNJ/SENJ (Wednesday). S/SW flow chills down coastal Cumberland and Cape May (Thursday). NNJ elevations will likely behave similar (stuck in the 50s) just because of geography and climatology. But for SWNJ, SENJ (away from the ocean), most of CNJ and NENJ, you have a good shot at 3-4 days of 60+ and maybe even 1-2 days of 70+ in the Tuesday-Thursday window. By Friday night, a mostly-dry cold front should approach and gradually sag southward over NJ Saturday-Sunday and return colder temps for the weekend. We’re talking similar conditions to this past weekend…highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s for most. We should then warm back up by the middle of next week as ridging re-establishes.
Monday (March 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s.
Tuesday (March 9) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most. NWNJ elevations and immediate SENJ coastal areas could hang a few degrees cooler. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run higher in the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.
Wednesday (March 10) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most. ECNJ and SNJ coastal regions (both ocean and Delaware Bay) could hang in the 50s. Interior CNJ/SNJ could again climb higher into the 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.
Thursday (March 11) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s again away from the ocean. This day probably has the best chance for interior CNJ/SNJ to climb into the 70s. Places like Cape May and nearby surrounding coastlines could again hang in the 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 50 statewide.
Friday (March 12) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most. NNJ has the best chance to be cloudy with periods of rain. SNJ has the best chance to stay clear with just a mix of sun and clouds. Areas between, still mild but cloudy (just S of the rain). Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.
An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions. Not super cold but certainly unwelcome after Tuesday-Friday’s milder conditions. Skies do not look too bad maybe breezy at times. Milder weather should then return next week. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™