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  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 241123
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Great Abaco
    Island in the Bahamas, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
    central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)


    ...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.8, -50.1 with movement S at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 25


    Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 240854
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  25
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    ...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...31.8N 50.1W
    ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1370 MI...2210 KM W OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
    near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
    drifting southward, and a slow southeastward motion is expected to
    begin later today.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
    the next 36 to 48 hours and Lee could be near major hurricane
    strength on Monday.
    
    Lee is a small hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
    to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
    extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 25


    Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 240854
    TCMAT4
    
    HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
    0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  50.1W AT 24/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   1 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
    64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  50.1W AT 24/0900Z
    AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.6N  49.6W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.1N  48.9W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.6N  48.8W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.2N  49.4W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N  51.3W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 32.0N  52.5W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 34.5N  51.4W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  50.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
    
    
    
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 25


    Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 240855
    TCDAT4
    
    Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  25
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    Since the earlier special advisory issued to make Lee a hurricane,
    the eye has become much better defined in IR imagery, indicating
    that the hurricane has continued to rapidly intensify.  The initial
    intensity has therefore been increased to 75 kt, based on an
    application of the Dvorak technique to the latest IR imagery. It
    should be noted that in this case, the intensity is fairly uncertain
    given the lack of ground truth and the small size of the cyclone.
    
    At this point, it is hard to judge how long this period of rapid
    intensification will continue.  On one hand, Lee is expected to
    remain in a relatively unstable and low-shear environment for the
    next several days.  On the other, despite the clearing of the eye,
    cloud tops have not cooled significantly overnight, and the slow
    motion of Lee allows the possibility that the storm could begin to
    interact with its own cold wake.  The NHC forecast brings Lee to
    near major hurricane strength in 24 h, and then keeps Lee around
    that intensity through day 4, similar to the FSSE model.  By the end
    of the forecast, higher shear, due in part to the outflow of
    Hurricane Maria, could cause Lee to weaken, so the NHC forecast is a
    little lower at that point.
    
    Lee is drifting southward for now, but a southeastward motion is
    still forecast to begin later today.  Very little change has been
    made to the NHC forecast, which is mainly just an update of the
    previous one.  The models have come into better agreement that Lee
    will be primarily steered for the next several days by a mid-level
    ridge building to the northwest.  By day 5, a trough associated
    with Maria and the subtropical ridge should cause Lee to begin
    recurving.  Since the model spread has decreased, confidence in
    that aspect of the forecast has increased this morning.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/0900Z 31.8N  50.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
     12H  24/1800Z 31.6N  49.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
     24H  25/0600Z 31.1N  48.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
     36H  25/1800Z 30.6N  48.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
     48H  26/0600Z 30.2N  49.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
     72H  27/0600Z 30.5N  51.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
     96H  28/0600Z 32.0N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
    120H  29/0600Z 34.5N  51.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    

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