Tropical Model Guidance

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 1, 2014 17:11

Tropical Model Guidance

The Latest on Arthur

It’s important to understand what exactly is going to happen between Thursday night and Friday night. A cold front will be coming through our region on Thursday evening from the WNW. This will have it’s own associated rain and storms (possibly severe) that have nothing to do with Arthur…yet. These showers and storms will likely last overnight into Friday.

On Friday morning, the absolute NW outer bands of Arthur could potentially interact with lingering showers from the frontal passage. The front will still be close to the Jersey Shore. This could keep Friday wet (especially for SENJ and barrier islands) but only until the afternoon hours. By late Friday afternoon, the front should be doing it’s job pushing Arthur ENE and out to sea. This is the latest Euro showing where Arthur will be just before sunset on Friday.

There is debate how strong Arthur will get. Most guidance indicates at least Tropical Storm intensity with Category 1 hurricane strength on the table. Coastal SC/NC will likely see the heaviest impact from Arthur Friday morning. Regardless, surf and rip currents along coastal NJ (Cape May to Sandy Hook) will be intensified for at least Friday and Saturday so listen to life guards and respect the sea!

With all of this being said, there’s a decent chance of Friday evening drying out but with possible northerly winds. Sat and Sun still look pretty good. Between the frontal passage and Arthur, most of the humidity should be carried away for a decent holiday weekend. I’ll have the full July 4th Weekend Outlook posted Thursday evening along with a surprise announcement. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 1, 2014 17:11

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