Better Week Expected (May 9-13)
Don’t get me wrong, this week will feature some rain and storms. But it’s looking much better than last week.
Synoptic Discussion: At 500mb, the E side component (trough of lower heights) of the omega block is lifting out to the NE. We’ll now deal with the center portion of the block which features a ridge of higher heights. Due to the slower meridional pattern downstream, led by the N Atlantic blocking pattern (-NAO), this ridge will take its time in passing from the C US through the E US. It won’t be until Friday night into Saturday before we see a passing cold front to usher in the W side component of the omega block. Luckily, that final component looks to have a positive tilt and overall zonal flow pattern with strong support for a SE US ridge to minimize the impact. This should start next week even warmer after a brief period of lower heights swinging through. At the surface, a low pressure system will crawl eastward between the central and western components of the omega block. Today and tomorrow, high pressure to our N will delay/stall the warm front but possibly not enough to bring rain to SNJ. NNJ and CNJ have much better days expected to start this week. Eventually that boundary should move through NJ from S to N (midweek into Friday), placing NJ in a possibly cloudy warm sector for a short period. Ultimately the cold front will come through, attached to the passing Canadian low, and likely disrupt the start of the weekend. Let’s break this all down:
Monday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most. Breaking 70 away from the ocean is very plausible. The northern 2/3 of the state should see sun and possibly some clouds. The southern 1/3 should deal with more clouds and possibly some rain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s for NNJ elevations (frost possible) to lower-50s along the SNJ coast.
Tuesday (May 10) high temperatures should reach about 60 statewide. NNJ has the best chance to stay dry but rain could work its way in if the frontal boundary is far enough N. CNJ and SNJ could be looking at the best chance for rainfall. Winds should be light out of the W/NW for most areas. Coastal regions could see a light onshore breeze. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.
Wednesday (May 11) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. SNJ could hold onto some clouds and 60s (“mostly” dry though). Looking better the further N you are. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide.
Thursday (May 12) high temperatures should reach the 70s for most of New Jersey. The SNJ coast could stay in the upper-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny for at least the first half of the day but might cloud up towards PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should only drop into the 50s statewide (warm sector influence).
Friday (May 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s statewide. Breaking 70 is not off the table. A line of rain and thunderstorms is expected to pass through at some point between Friday PM hours and Saturday AM hours. I will address any severe weather concerns for such mid-week if need be. With that said skies could feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds until the storm/rain threat approaches from the W. Thunderstorms are more likely right along the cold frontal passage with more of a widespread rain behind it. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s and 50s statewide as lingering showers taper off by daybreak on Saturday.
An early look at the weekend indicates dry weather with highs in the 60s and 70s. This is slightly cool for this time of year but should feel very comfortable. Saturday looks to feature more clouds than Sunday. Let’s re-visit midweek along with the Friday-Saturday thunderstorm potential. The cooler air mass aloft will retreat quickly heading into next week. We’re going to get slapped with 80s and 90s heading into ~Memorial Day Weeekend (possibly earlier) at some point so enjoy these cooler, but pleasant, sunny spring days beforehand. Have a great week and be safe! JC