Cold Pattern Reloads (Dec 11-15)

Discussion: A few upper-level shortwaves will be syncing up within a broader longwave trough. This trough is expected to swing through our area this week. The upper level dynamics will no doubt produce a surface disturbance but such should stay to our NW. It will likely swing through the Great Lakes, bottom out in the W NY State area, and lift back up into SE Canada. This should put most of NJ in a warm sector to start the week. Frontal precipitation is possible but not much. NNJ elevations have a better chance of light wintry precipitation than the lower 2/3 of NJ (rain with a few flakes mixed in or ending as flurries). Once the front is through at the surface by Tuesday, temperatures should crash behind the front. I’m seeing very low 500mb height anomalies for the Tuesday night through Friday morning period. That tells me it is going to be cold at the surface during this period. We then have another disturbance possible for Thursday which could produce light snow further S in NJ. I’ll be following and reporting on this throughout the week.

Monday (Dec 11) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with coastal regions hanging in the low-to-mid 30s. A disturbance will be passing to our NW which could bring light snow to NNJ elevations.

Tuesday (Dec 12) high temperatures should range from low-40s to low-50s from NNJ to SNJ. As a strong cold front moves through. Some wintry precipitation is possible, especially for points NW. Not a big deal. Most of lower NJ should see rain only. Once the cold front is through, temperatures are expected to crash. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty, out of the SW ahead of front and then gusty out of W/NW behind the front (overnight). Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ. Brrrrrr re: wind chills.

Wednesday (Dec 13) high temperatures should fail to get above freezing for NNJ. The lower 2/3 of NJ might just reach into the lower-30s. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows could fall into single-digits for higher elevations of NNJ. The rest of NJ should fall into the teens and 20s N to S. Another disturbance will becoming through overnight but snowfall accumulations should be light.

Thursday (Dec 14) high temperatures should range from 30-40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny once any early AM light snowfall clears. Winds should subside out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the teens and 20s statewide.

Friday (Dec 15) high temperatures should again range from 30-40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again fall into the teens and 20s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates conditions not as cold as this Tuesday night through Friday. Relatively milder with highs in 30s and 40s with no major storm systems on the horizon. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™