Cold Start. Mild Wet Finish (Dec 17-21)

Discussion: Upper-level low energy, that influenced the departing system from this weekend, is moving out to sea as well. A trailing upper-level shortwave will dive in and keep the first part of this week cold. The coldest bottom point looks like overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. From Wednesday evening through the weekend we’re looking at a warm-up with another rainy system in the Thursday night through Saturday morning period. The Euro is showing a Christmas Eve disturbance with likely I-80 being the snow/rain line. Other guidance is not thrilled. I need a couple more days before developing a Christmas period forecast that makes sense. I should have that in the weekend outlook released this Thursday evening.

Monday (Dec 17) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to upper-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ as winds relax.

Tuesday (Dec 18) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for most. SENJ likely near-40. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens and 20s statewide.

Wednesday (Dec 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s.

Thursday (Dec 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most, possibly the low-50s for parts of SNJ. Skies should increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Periods of light rainfall are possible heading into overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Friday (Dec 21) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 60 broken away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rainfall, moderate-to-heavy at times, is possible. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SE more so for coastal regions.

An early look at the weekend indicates mild conditions likely sustaining through the Christmas period (for most). Not as mild as this Friday but still relatively mild for average December temperatures. The Christmas period will be covered more in the weekend outlook released this Thursday evening. I hope you are enjoying the new Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™