Cold Start to the Week (Jan 4-8)
High pressure over the Great Lakes will help drive an Arctic air mass over New Jersey early this week. After that we moderate in temperatures heading into the weekend (expected) as all eyes then turn to a potential stormy period early next week. Let’s break it down:
Monday (Jan 4) high temperatures should rage from mid-20s for NWNJ elevations to mid-30s for the extreme SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with the caveat that lake effect flurries/streamers could find their way into New Jersey…a better chance in NWNJ than SENJ for this given proximity to the Great Lakes. Otherwise, winds should be gusty out of the N/NW making for bitter wind chills. Overnight lows should drop into single digits for NNJ elevations and bottom out in the teens for the rest of New Jersey. Perhaps the extreme SENJ coast only drops to 20.
Tuesday (Jan 5) high temperatures should having trouble escaping the 20s statewide. 30 could be broken in a few spots though. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from single digits for NNJ elevations to teens/low 20s for the rest of New Jersey.
Wednesday (Jan 6) high temperatures should range from upper-30s in NNJ elevations to lower-40s for the rest of New Jersey. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 30s (NNJ elevations to SENJ coast).
Thursday (Jan 7) high temperatures should range from low-to-upper 40s statewide. The extreme SENJ coast could break 50. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 20s for NNJ elevations to 30s for the rest of New Jersey.
Friday (Jan 8) high temperatures should range from 40s in NNJ elevations to 50s for the rest of New Jersey. Clouds should begin increasing ahead of a low pressure disturbance. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE (moreso along the coast). Overnight lows should range from 20s to 40s (NWNJ to SENJ).
An early look at the weekend indicates unorganized low pressure passing through. This should produce rainfall across the region with a cold front through by Monday. The jury is still out on whether the higher elevations of NWNJ will see frozen forms of precipitation. The rest of the state should likely just see a cold rain. This will then end the expected period of temperature moderation.
We then could experience our first possible winter storm of the season next week as the cold returns. The pattern remains stubborn and favorable for such (-EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO MJO 7-8 with a split jet flow off the Pacific) however we still do not have a confident specific snow storm threat modeled.
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I’ll be watching the winter storm threat for next week very closely. Have a great week and be safe! JC