Colder Conditions Expected (Nov 9-11)

Discussion: The two most prominent upper-level features over the next week or so are two troughs. The first trough should swing through this weekend between Saturday and Sunday. The second should swing through between Wednesday and Friday of next week. The Monday-Tuesday period between the two troughs is when a progressive surface disturbance should move through NJ. Friday starts the weekend with periods of heavy rainfall between about 4pm and midnight. The rain should be linear along the cold front and move from W to E. Once that clears out, the first trough will chill down NJ for Saturday-Sunday. Sunday night looks slightly colder than Saturday night due to lighter winds and clear skies (radiational cooling). With that said, you should feel the coldest wind chills on Saturday with the W/NW jet behind the departing low. Either way both Saturday and Sunday night should be cold…some of the coldest conditions yet this fall.

The Monday-Tuesday storm system is likely rain for most of NJ. I’ll allow a small chance for NWNJ elevations to see some rain mix over to snow (only if precipitation rates are insane) but little-to-no accumulations would be expected. Most precipitation will occur during onshore flow (over sea surface temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s) which will make the lower-levels simply too warm for snowfall yet alone snow stickage. All snowfall/accumulation chances would have to occur once the progressive low is directly E of NJ which allows very little time. If anywhere is going to see accumulating snowfall from the Monday-Tuesday system, it would be to the W and/or N of NJ (interior Appalachians of PA/NY). It won’t be long for New Jersey snowfall but not just yet IMO.

Friday (Nov 9) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rainfall, likely heavy at times, is expected between afternoon and evening hours. The kind of stuff that leads to flash flooding. Whether or not a few embedded boomers occur is yet TBD. The most likely headline will be cold drenching rain. Winds should be light out of the E for most away from the ocean, a bit breezier out of the E along the coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Nov 10) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be gusty at times out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Nov 11) high temperatures should again fail to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the coldest NNJ elevations and possibly even some pine barrens dip into the teens.

An early look at next week indicates a milder Monday-Tuesday (compared to Saturday-Sunday) with more rainfall expected. Then it’s back to the colder/drier pattern (highs in the 40s/lows in the 20s) Wednesday-forward. Have a great weekend, stay warm and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™