Conditions Gradually Improve

Discussion: The upper low is still meandering off coastal New England (Gulf of Maine area) placing New Jersey on its SW side. We therefore have NW flow with lower geopotential heights and unsettled conditions. As long as we are within proximity to this upper low, there are rain shower chances since less lift is required to saturate moisture to the point of condensation. Rain chances today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) are very minute however with just isolated showers…nothing like the rain earlier this week when we were E of the upper low in the thick of the sfc low precip and frontal boundary influence. With that said, today’s showers should be isolated and then rain chances tonight into Saturday morning should be even more isolated…just not zero. My gut tells me we are finished with rain for the weekend by sunrise tomorrow morning. I’d like for the weekend to warm up big time, but we’ll probably hold onto a few slightly cooler days Saturday through Monday. But by the end of Monday, you should get a sense of what’s coming which are 60s and 70s Tuesday and beyond. I can’t promise there won’t be a few transient colder days for the rest of April where temps max in the 50s. But most days are looking 60+ from Tuesday-forward. Rain chances return for Wednesday through Friday of next week with the weekend remaining slightly unsettled. But it will be milder than recent times. No other major impact on the near-horizon weather-wise…probably just a bunch of “stomach bugs” showing up Tues-Wed LOL.

Friday (April 5) high temperatures are currently (as of Friday 3pm) maxing a few degrees on either side of 50 statewide. There was a 4.8 earthquake in CNJ this morning which most of NJ felt. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers possible. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.  

Saturday (April 6) high temperatures should again hover around 50 statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few more isolated showers around, especially during AM hours. Rain chances should diminish by afternoon, if not by mid-to-late morning. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.  

Sunday (April 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Can’t rule out a few spots in CNJ/SNJ, away from the ocean, flirting with 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but no rain. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.  

An early look at next week indicates a turn towards prolonged mild temperatures. Monday might be another day like the weekend where temps struggle to break 60. But Tuesday-forward looks like 60s and 70s for most of NJ with small exception of coastal areas held in mid-to-upper 50s due to marine influence. More rain showing in the Wed-Fri period, but temps remain mild through that and after.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™