Dec 11: Cold Temperatures Detected!
After next week’s ~Tuesday rain and ~Thursday-Friday coastal low potential, temperatures are expected to plunge below-average for next weekend. This, IMO will be a transient cold shot but the coldest and longest yet of meteorological winter (began Dec 1). I expect it to last from next Friday through Monday.
Here is some model guidance showing 850mb temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday (all 18Z times):
The main driver of this will be high pressure that slowly gravitates from Texas through the SE US. If you notice, Saturday’s temp profile indicates a transient +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern (ridge for W. US/trough for E. US) which makes since given the current modeled teleconnections and current pattern across the Pacific, Arctic and sub-tropical regions. The cold will likely leave as fast as it comes in after next weekend but then set up another cold air mass invasion for Christmas Weekend. With that said, I think we should prepare for a roller coaster of temperatures fluctuating between “very mild for winter” and “cold enough for snow” through the end of December. The writing is on the wall.
Specific daily conditions will obviously have to be monitored in the shorter term. Let’s get through Tuesday’s rain, next Thursday-Friday’s coastal, and next weekends cold shot first before we get too crazy about the holidays.
In English: Warm weekend, rain on Tuesday, rain/possible snow for elevations next Thursday-Friday and then a very cold weekend. Be safe! JC
Model images retrieved from Tropical Tidbits.